Projecting the global impact of fossil fuel production from the Former Soviet Union

Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) fossil fuel production has been created. Russian production has been modelled at the region (oblast) level where possible. The projections were made using the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). Low, Best Guess and High scenarios w...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Mohr, Steve, Wang, Jianliang, Ward, James, Giurco, Damien
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Singapore 2021
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8351787/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34395031
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40789-021-00449-x
Descripción
Sumario:Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) fossil fuel production has been created. Russian production has been modelled at the region (oblast) level where possible. The projections were made using the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). Low, Best Guess and High scenarios were created. FSU fossil fuels are projected to peak between 2027 and 2087 with the range due to spread of Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) values used. The Best Guess (BG) scenario anticipates FSU will peak in 2087 with production over 170 EJ per year. The FSU projections were combined with rest of the world projections (Mohr et al. 2015b), the emissions from the High scenario for the world are similar to the IPCC A1 AIM scenario. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40789-021-00449-x.

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