Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths

We examine whether a country's management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the probability of underreporting of C...

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Autores principales: Kobilov, Botir, Rouen, Ethan, Serafeim, George
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, Tsinghua UniversitySociety for the Analysis of Government and Economics. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8354784/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2021.100012
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author Kobilov, Botir
Rouen, Ethan
Serafeim, George
author_facet Kobilov, Botir
Rouen, Ethan
Serafeim, George
author_sort Kobilov, Botir
collection PubMed
description We examine whether a country's management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the probability of underreporting of COVID-related deaths for countries with the most stringent policies was 58.6%, compared to a 28.2% for countries with the least stringent policies. Countries with the lowest ex ante healthcare capacity in terms of number of available beds underreport deaths by 52.5% on average, compared to 23.1% for countries with the greatest capacity.
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spelling pubmed-83547842021-08-11 Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths Kobilov, Botir Rouen, Ethan Serafeim, George Journal of Government and Economics Article We examine whether a country's management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the probability of underreporting of COVID-related deaths for countries with the most stringent policies was 58.6%, compared to a 28.2% for countries with the least stringent policies. Countries with the lowest ex ante healthcare capacity in terms of number of available beds underreport deaths by 52.5% on average, compared to 23.1% for countries with the greatest capacity. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, Tsinghua UniversitySociety for the Analysis of Government and Economics. 2021 2021-08-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8354784/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2021.100012 Text en © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, Tsinghua UniversitySociety for the Analysis of Government and Economics. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Kobilov, Botir
Rouen, Ethan
Serafeim, George
Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths
title Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths
title_full Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths
title_fullStr Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths
title_full_unstemmed Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths
title_short Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths
title_sort predictable country-level bias in the reporting of covid-19 deaths
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8354784/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2021.100012
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