Cargando…
Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread
Identifying ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread has great value for tick-borne disease management. However, theoretical investigations into the consequences of host movement behaviour on pathogen spread dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes remain limited because spatially explicit epide...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Royal Society
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8355688/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34376091 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0134 |
_version_ | 1783736810166288384 |
---|---|
author | Tardy, Olivia Bouchard, Catherine Chamberland, Eric Fortin, André Lamirande, Patricia Ogden, Nicholas H. Leighton, Patrick A. |
author_facet | Tardy, Olivia Bouchard, Catherine Chamberland, Eric Fortin, André Lamirande, Patricia Ogden, Nicholas H. Leighton, Patrick A. |
author_sort | Tardy, Olivia |
collection | PubMed |
description | Identifying ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread has great value for tick-borne disease management. However, theoretical investigations into the consequences of host movement behaviour on pathogen spread dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes remain limited because spatially explicit epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic mechanisms governing host movement are rare. We built a mechanistic movement model to investigate how the interplay between multiple ecological drivers affects the risk of tick-borne pathogen spread across heterogeneous landscapes. We used the model to generate simulations of tick dispersal by migratory birds and terrestrial hosts across theoretical landscapes varying in resource aggregation, and we performed a sensitivity analysis to explore the impacts of different parameters on the infected tick spread rate, tick infection prevalence and infected tick density. Our findings highlight the importance of host movement and tick population dynamics in explaining the infected tick spread rate into new regions. Tick infection prevalence and infected tick density were driven by predictors related to the infection process and tick population dynamics, respectively. Our results suggest that control strategies aiming to reduce tick burden on tick reproduction hosts and encounter rate between immature ticks and pathogen amplification hosts will be most effective at reducing tick-borne disease risk. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8355688 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | The Royal Society |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83556882022-03-10 Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread Tardy, Olivia Bouchard, Catherine Chamberland, Eric Fortin, André Lamirande, Patricia Ogden, Nicholas H. Leighton, Patrick A. J R Soc Interface Life Sciences–Mathematics interface Identifying ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread has great value for tick-borne disease management. However, theoretical investigations into the consequences of host movement behaviour on pathogen spread dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes remain limited because spatially explicit epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic mechanisms governing host movement are rare. We built a mechanistic movement model to investigate how the interplay between multiple ecological drivers affects the risk of tick-borne pathogen spread across heterogeneous landscapes. We used the model to generate simulations of tick dispersal by migratory birds and terrestrial hosts across theoretical landscapes varying in resource aggregation, and we performed a sensitivity analysis to explore the impacts of different parameters on the infected tick spread rate, tick infection prevalence and infected tick density. Our findings highlight the importance of host movement and tick population dynamics in explaining the infected tick spread rate into new regions. Tick infection prevalence and infected tick density were driven by predictors related to the infection process and tick population dynamics, respectively. Our results suggest that control strategies aiming to reduce tick burden on tick reproduction hosts and encounter rate between immature ticks and pathogen amplification hosts will be most effective at reducing tick-borne disease risk. The Royal Society 2021-08-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8355688/ /pubmed/34376091 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0134 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Life Sciences–Mathematics interface Tardy, Olivia Bouchard, Catherine Chamberland, Eric Fortin, André Lamirande, Patricia Ogden, Nicholas H. Leighton, Patrick A. Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread |
title | Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread |
title_full | Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread |
title_fullStr | Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread |
title_full_unstemmed | Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread |
title_short | Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread |
title_sort | mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread |
topic | Life Sciences–Mathematics interface |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8355688/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34376091 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0134 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT tardyolivia mechanisticmovementmodelsrevealecologicaldriversoftickbornepathogenspread AT bouchardcatherine mechanisticmovementmodelsrevealecologicaldriversoftickbornepathogenspread AT chamberlanderic mechanisticmovementmodelsrevealecologicaldriversoftickbornepathogenspread AT fortinandre mechanisticmovementmodelsrevealecologicaldriversoftickbornepathogenspread AT lamirandepatricia mechanisticmovementmodelsrevealecologicaldriversoftickbornepathogenspread AT ogdennicholash mechanisticmovementmodelsrevealecologicaldriversoftickbornepathogenspread AT leightonpatricka mechanisticmovementmodelsrevealecologicaldriversoftickbornepathogenspread |