Stochastic dynamics of predator-prey interactions

The interaction between a consumer (such as, a predator or a parasitoid) and a resource (such as, a prey or a host) forms an integral motif in ecological food webs, and has been modeled since the early 20(th) century starting from the seminal work of Lotka and Volterra. While the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model predicts a neutrally stable equilibrium with oscillating population densities, a density-dependent predator attack rate is known to stabilize the equilibrium. Here, we consider a stochastic formulation of the Lotka-Volterra model where the prey’s reproduction rate is a random process, and the predator’s attack rate depends on both the prey and predator population densities. Analysis shows that increasing the sensitivity of the attack rate to the prey density attenuates the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations in the population densities. In contrast, these fluctuations vary non-monotonically with the sensitivity of the attack rate to the predator density with an optimal level of sensitivity minimizing the magnitude of fluctuations. Interestingly, our systematic study of the predator-prey correlations reveals distinct signatures depending on the form of the density-dependent attack rate. In summary, stochastic dynamics of nonlinear Lotka-Volterra models can be harnessed to infer density-dependent mechanisms regulating predator-prey interactions. Moreover, these mechanisms can have contrasting consequences on population density fluctuations, with predator-dependent attack rates amplifying stochasticity, while prey-dependent attack rates countering to buffer fluctuations.