Modelling the ability of mass drug administration to interrupt soil-transmitted helminth transmission: Community-based deworming in Kenya as a case study

The World Health Organization has recommended the application of mass drug administration (MDA) in treating high prevalence neglected tropical diseases such as soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. MDA—which is safe, effective and inexpensive—has been widely applied to eliminate or interrupt the transmission of STHs in particular and has been offered to people in endemic regions without requiring individual diagnosis. We propose two mathematical models to investigate the impact of MDA on the mean number of worms in both treated and untreated human subpopulations. By varying the efficay of drugs, initial conditions of the models, coverage and frequency of MDA (both annual and biannual), we examine the dynamic behaviour of both models and the possibility of interruption of transmission. Both models predict that the interruption of transmission is possible if the drug efficacy is sufficiently high, but STH infection remains endemic if the drug efficacy is sufficiently low. In between these two critical values, the two models produce different predictions. By applying an additional round of biannual and annual MDA, we find that interruption of transmission is likely to happen in both cases with lower drug efficacy. In order to interrupt the transmission of STH or eliminate the infection efficiently and effectively, it is crucial to identify the appropriate efficacy of drug, coverage, frequency, timing and number of rounds of MDA.