Tau-PET and in vivo Braak-staging as prognostic markers of future cognitive decline in cognitively normal to demented individuals

BACKGROUND: To systematically examine the clinical utility of tau-PET and Braak-staging as prognostic markers of future cognitive decline in older adults with and without cognitive impairment. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we included 396 cognitively normal to dementia subjects with (18)F-Florbetapir/(18)F-Florbetaben-amyloid-PET, (18)F-Flortaucipir-tau-PET and ~ 2-year cognitive follow-up. Annual change rates in global cognition (i.e., MMSE, ADAS13) and episodic memory were calculated via linear-mixed models. We determined global amyloid-PET (Centiloid) plus global and Braak-stage-specific tau-PET SUVRs, which were stratified as positive((+))/negative((−)) at pre-established cut-offs, classifying subjects as Braak(0)/Braak(I+)/Braak(I–IV+)/Braak(I–VI+)/Braak(atypical+). In bootstrapped linear regression, we assessed the predictive accuracy of global tau-PET SUVRs vs. Centiloid on subsequent cognitive decline. To test for independent tau vs. amyloid effects, analyses were further controlled for the contrary PET-tracer. Using ANCOVAs, we tested whether more advanced Braak-stage predicted accelerated future cognitive decline. All models were controlled for age, sex, education, diagnosis, and baseline cognition. Lastly, we determined Braak-stage-specific conversion risk to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia. RESULTS: Baseline global tau-PET SUVRs explained more variance (partial R(2)) in future cognitive decline than Centiloid across all cognitive tests (Cohen’s d ~ 2, all tests p < 0.001) and diagnostic groups. Associations between tau-PET and cognitive decline remained consistent when controlling for Centiloid, while associations between amyloid-PET and cognitive decline were non-significant when controlling for tau-PET. More advanced Braak-stage was associated with gradually worsening future cognitive decline, independent of Centiloid or diagnostic group (p < 0.001), and elevated conversion risk to MCI/dementia. CONCLUSION: Tau-PET and Braak-staging are highly predictive markers of future cognitive decline and may be promising single-modality estimates for prognostication of patient-specific progression risk in clinical settings. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13195-021-00880-x.