Present and potential future critical source areas of nonpoint source pollution: a case of the Nakdong River watershed, South Korea

Identifying critical source areas (CSAs) is the first step to effectively managing nonpoint source (NPS) pollution. Increasing variability in climate can affect identification of CSAs. In this study, we identified present and future CSAs of NPS pollution in the Nakdong River watershed and examined how climate change will influence the identification of CSAs. Nine NPS pollution-related factors affecting the watershed environment and water quality were considered. These factors were rescaled through a min-max normalization to propose an index system that ranks basins based on the sensitivity of basins to climate change on identifying CSAs. For analyses, past rainfall was replaced with future rainfall under two RCP scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Results showed insignificant differences in the spatial distribution of CSAs between the present and the future and between the future scenarios. Basins that are on or adjacent to the Nakdong River mainstream were mainly identified as CSAs, in addition to many basins of the Geumho and Nam rivers. Highly ranked CSAs including the level 1 CSAs, were mainly distributed in the mid- and downstream areas of the Nakdong River, indicating high need of NPS pollution management. This study can provide a foundation for the effective management of NPS pollution in the present and the future.