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Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination

To dissect the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, we integrate parallel streams of high-resolution data on contact, mobility, seasonality, vaccination and seroprevalence within a metapopulation network. We find the COVID-19 pandemic in the US is characterized by a geographical...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Susswein, Zachary, Valdano, Eugenio, Brett, Tobias, Rohani, Pejman, Colizza, Vittoria, Bansal, Shweta
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366803/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34401885
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.09.21261807
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author Susswein, Zachary
Valdano, Eugenio
Brett, Tobias
Rohani, Pejman
Colizza, Vittoria
Bansal, Shweta
author_facet Susswein, Zachary
Valdano, Eugenio
Brett, Tobias
Rohani, Pejman
Colizza, Vittoria
Bansal, Shweta
author_sort Susswein, Zachary
collection PubMed
description To dissect the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, we integrate parallel streams of high-resolution data on contact, mobility, seasonality, vaccination and seroprevalence within a metapopulation network. We find the COVID-19 pandemic in the US is characterized by a geographically localized mosaic of transmission along an urban-rural gradient, with many outbreaks sustained by between-county transmission. We detect a dynamic tension between the spatial scale of public health interventions and population susceptibility as pre-pandemic contact is resumed. Further, we identify regions rendered particularly at risk from invasion by variants of concern due to spatial connectivity. These findings emphasize the public health importance of accounting for the hierarchy of spatial scales in transmission and the heterogeneous impacts of mobility on the landscape of contagion risk.
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spelling pubmed-83668032021-08-17 Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination Susswein, Zachary Valdano, Eugenio Brett, Tobias Rohani, Pejman Colizza, Vittoria Bansal, Shweta medRxiv Article To dissect the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, we integrate parallel streams of high-resolution data on contact, mobility, seasonality, vaccination and seroprevalence within a metapopulation network. We find the COVID-19 pandemic in the US is characterized by a geographically localized mosaic of transmission along an urban-rural gradient, with many outbreaks sustained by between-county transmission. We detect a dynamic tension between the spatial scale of public health interventions and population susceptibility as pre-pandemic contact is resumed. Further, we identify regions rendered particularly at risk from invasion by variants of concern due to spatial connectivity. These findings emphasize the public health importance of accounting for the hierarchy of spatial scales in transmission and the heterogeneous impacts of mobility on the landscape of contagion risk. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2021-08-10 /pmc/articles/PMC8366803/ /pubmed/34401885 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.09.21261807 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) , which allows reusers to copy and distribute the material in any medium or format in unadapted form only, for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator.
spellingShingle Article
Susswein, Zachary
Valdano, Eugenio
Brett, Tobias
Rohani, Pejman
Colizza, Vittoria
Bansal, Shweta
Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination
title Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination
title_full Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination
title_fullStr Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination
title_full_unstemmed Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination
title_short Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination
title_sort ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of sars-cov-2 transmission in the us will impede sustained elimination
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366803/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34401885
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.09.21261807
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