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How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector s...

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Autores principales: Couper, Lisa I, Farner, Johannah E, Caldwell, Jamie M, Childs, Marissa L, Harris, Mallory J, Kirk, Devin G, Nova, Nicole, Shocket, Marta, Skinner, Eloise B, Uricchio, Lawrence H, Exposito-Alonso, Moises, Mordecai, Erin A
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8370766/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34402424
http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.69630
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author Couper, Lisa I
Farner, Johannah E
Caldwell, Jamie M
Childs, Marissa L
Harris, Mallory J
Kirk, Devin G
Nova, Nicole
Shocket, Marta
Skinner, Eloise B
Uricchio, Lawrence H
Exposito-Alonso, Moises
Mordecai, Erin A
author_facet Couper, Lisa I
Farner, Johannah E
Caldwell, Jamie M
Childs, Marissa L
Harris, Mallory J
Kirk, Devin G
Nova, Nicole
Shocket, Marta
Skinner, Eloise B
Uricchio, Lawrence H
Exposito-Alonso, Moises
Mordecai, Erin A
author_sort Couper, Lisa I
collection PubMed
description The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.
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spelling pubmed-83707662021-08-18 How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming? Couper, Lisa I Farner, Johannah E Caldwell, Jamie M Childs, Marissa L Harris, Mallory J Kirk, Devin G Nova, Nicole Shocket, Marta Skinner, Eloise B Uricchio, Lawrence H Exposito-Alonso, Moises Mordecai, Erin A eLife Ecology The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change. eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd 2021-08-17 /pmc/articles/PMC8370766/ /pubmed/34402424 http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.69630 Text en © 2021, Couper et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Ecology
Couper, Lisa I
Farner, Johannah E
Caldwell, Jamie M
Childs, Marissa L
Harris, Mallory J
Kirk, Devin G
Nova, Nicole
Shocket, Marta
Skinner, Eloise B
Uricchio, Lawrence H
Exposito-Alonso, Moises
Mordecai, Erin A
How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
title How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
title_full How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
title_fullStr How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
title_full_unstemmed How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
title_short How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
title_sort how will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
topic Ecology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8370766/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34402424
http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.69630
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