Development of a prognostic prediction model based on microRNA-1269a in esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer (ESCA) is a heterogeneous cancer with variable outcomes that are challenging to predict. MicroRNA (miR)-1269a is a newly discovered non-coding RNA that shows promising prognostic prediction in other cancers, but its clinical value in ESCA remains unclear. AIM: To explore the relationship between miR-1269a and its clinical value and to develop a nomogram to succinctly display this relationship. METHODS: We analyzed the expression of miR-1269a in 125 ESCA tissue samples with complete clinical data and 52 normal tissue samples. We determined the prognostic value of miR-1269a for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) and evaluated the association between miR-1269a and clinical variables including tumor location, histologic grade, metastatic stage, and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage using multivariate Cox analysis. Additionally, we developed a nomogram for OS and CSS based on miR-1269a expression using age and AJCC stage and assessed its prognostic performance. Using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Gene and Genomes analyses, we predicted the target genes of miR-1269a and analyzed their potential function in caner development. RESULTS: The expression of miR-1269a was significantly higher in ESCA patients than healthy controls. Patients with high expression of miR-1269a showed poor prognosis in OS and CSS, suffered increased rates of low differentiation and metastasis, and exhibited tumor stage T3 + T4, positive lymph stage, and AJCC stage III + IV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of miR-1269a was 0.716 for OS and 0.764 for CSS. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that AJCC stage and miR-1269a were independent factors for OS and CSS. Combing with age, we constructed a nomogram for prognostic prediction. Additionally, our nomogram showed excellent predictive performance for OS and CSS after 3 years and 5 years and was easy to use. Ultimately, the functional analysis suggested that miR-1269a was mostly involved in the PI3K-AKT signaling pathway. CONCLUSION: miR-1269a can be used as a potential indicator for the prognosis of ESCA patients. We developed an easy-to-use nomogram with excellent ESCA prognostic prediction for clinical use.