Cargando…

Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges

We develop an agent-based model on a network meant to capture features unique to COVID-19 spread through a small residential college. We find that a safe reopening requires strong policy from administrators combined with cautious behavior from students. Strong policy includes weekly screening tests...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bahl, Riti, Eikmeier, Nicole, Fraser, Alexandra, Junge, Matthew, Keesing, Felicia, Nakahata, Kukai, Reeves, Lily
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8372956/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34407115
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255654
_version_ 1783739862897131520
author Bahl, Riti
Eikmeier, Nicole
Fraser, Alexandra
Junge, Matthew
Keesing, Felicia
Nakahata, Kukai
Reeves, Lily
author_facet Bahl, Riti
Eikmeier, Nicole
Fraser, Alexandra
Junge, Matthew
Keesing, Felicia
Nakahata, Kukai
Reeves, Lily
author_sort Bahl, Riti
collection PubMed
description We develop an agent-based model on a network meant to capture features unique to COVID-19 spread through a small residential college. We find that a safe reopening requires strong policy from administrators combined with cautious behavior from students. Strong policy includes weekly screening tests with quick turnaround and halving the campus population. Cautious behavior from students means wearing facemasks, socializing less, and showing up for COVID-19 testing. We also find that comprehensive testing and facemasks are the most effective single interventions, building closures can lead to infection spikes in other areas depending on student behavior, and faster return of test results significantly reduces total infections.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8372956
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-83729562021-08-19 Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges Bahl, Riti Eikmeier, Nicole Fraser, Alexandra Junge, Matthew Keesing, Felicia Nakahata, Kukai Reeves, Lily PLoS One Research Article We develop an agent-based model on a network meant to capture features unique to COVID-19 spread through a small residential college. We find that a safe reopening requires strong policy from administrators combined with cautious behavior from students. Strong policy includes weekly screening tests with quick turnaround and halving the campus population. Cautious behavior from students means wearing facemasks, socializing less, and showing up for COVID-19 testing. We also find that comprehensive testing and facemasks are the most effective single interventions, building closures can lead to infection spikes in other areas depending on student behavior, and faster return of test results significantly reduces total infections. Public Library of Science 2021-08-18 /pmc/articles/PMC8372956/ /pubmed/34407115 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255654 Text en © 2021 Bahl et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bahl, Riti
Eikmeier, Nicole
Fraser, Alexandra
Junge, Matthew
Keesing, Felicia
Nakahata, Kukai
Reeves, Lily
Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges
title Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges
title_full Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges
title_fullStr Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges
title_full_unstemmed Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges
title_short Modeling COVID-19 spread in small colleges
title_sort modeling covid-19 spread in small colleges
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8372956/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34407115
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255654
work_keys_str_mv AT bahlriti modelingcovid19spreadinsmallcolleges
AT eikmeiernicole modelingcovid19spreadinsmallcolleges
AT fraseralexandra modelingcovid19spreadinsmallcolleges
AT jungematthew modelingcovid19spreadinsmallcolleges
AT keesingfelicia modelingcovid19spreadinsmallcolleges
AT nakahatakukai modelingcovid19spreadinsmallcolleges
AT reeveslily modelingcovid19spreadinsmallcolleges