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Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models
Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is a rare but potentially life-threatening hepatic disorder that leads to considerable maternal and fetal mortality. To explore the risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality in AFLP and develop new predictive models, through this retrospective study, we anal...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8374939/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34422871 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.719906 |
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author | Meng, Zhaoli Fang, Wei Meng, Mei Zhang, Jicheng Wang, Qizhi Qie, Guoqiang Chen, Man Wang, Chunting |
author_facet | Meng, Zhaoli Fang, Wei Meng, Mei Zhang, Jicheng Wang, Qizhi Qie, Guoqiang Chen, Man Wang, Chunting |
author_sort | Meng, Zhaoli |
collection | PubMed |
description | Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is a rare but potentially life-threatening hepatic disorder that leads to considerable maternal and fetal mortality. To explore the risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality in AFLP and develop new predictive models, through this retrospective study, we analyzed the demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms, and laboratory findings of 106 patients with AFLP who were admitted to Shandong Provincial Hospital. Risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The new models based on the multivariate logistic regression analysis and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) were tested in AFLP. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied to compare the predictive efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity of the two models. Prenatal nausea (p = 0.037), prolonged prothrombin time (p = 0.003), and elevated serum creatinine (p = 0.003) were independent risk factors for maternal mortality. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the MELD was 0.948, with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 83.3%. The AUC of the new model for maternal mortality was 0.926, with a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 94.8%. Hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.016) and thrombocytopenia (p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for fetal mortality. Using the ROC curve, the AUC of the MELD was 0.694, yielding a sensitivity of 68.8% and a specificity of 64.4%. The AUC of the new model for fetal mortality was 0.893, yielding a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 73.3%. Both the new predictive model for maternal mortality and the MELD showed good predictive efficacy for maternal mortality in patients with AFLP (AUC = 0.926 and 0.948, respectively), and the new predictive model for fetal mortality was superior to the MELD in predicting fetal mortality (AUC = 0.893 and 0.694, respectively). The two new predictive models were more readily available, less expensive, and easier to implement clinically, especially in low-income countries. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8374939 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83749392021-08-20 Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models Meng, Zhaoli Fang, Wei Meng, Mei Zhang, Jicheng Wang, Qizhi Qie, Guoqiang Chen, Man Wang, Chunting Front Med (Lausanne) Medicine Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is a rare but potentially life-threatening hepatic disorder that leads to considerable maternal and fetal mortality. To explore the risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality in AFLP and develop new predictive models, through this retrospective study, we analyzed the demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms, and laboratory findings of 106 patients with AFLP who were admitted to Shandong Provincial Hospital. Risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The new models based on the multivariate logistic regression analysis and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) were tested in AFLP. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied to compare the predictive efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity of the two models. Prenatal nausea (p = 0.037), prolonged prothrombin time (p = 0.003), and elevated serum creatinine (p = 0.003) were independent risk factors for maternal mortality. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the MELD was 0.948, with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 83.3%. The AUC of the new model for maternal mortality was 0.926, with a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 94.8%. Hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.016) and thrombocytopenia (p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for fetal mortality. Using the ROC curve, the AUC of the MELD was 0.694, yielding a sensitivity of 68.8% and a specificity of 64.4%. The AUC of the new model for fetal mortality was 0.893, yielding a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 73.3%. Both the new predictive model for maternal mortality and the MELD showed good predictive efficacy for maternal mortality in patients with AFLP (AUC = 0.926 and 0.948, respectively), and the new predictive model for fetal mortality was superior to the MELD in predicting fetal mortality (AUC = 0.893 and 0.694, respectively). The two new predictive models were more readily available, less expensive, and easier to implement clinically, especially in low-income countries. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-08-05 /pmc/articles/PMC8374939/ /pubmed/34422871 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.719906 Text en Copyright © 2021 Meng, Fang, Meng, Zhang, Wang, Qie, Chen and Wang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Medicine Meng, Zhaoli Fang, Wei Meng, Mei Zhang, Jicheng Wang, Qizhi Qie, Guoqiang Chen, Man Wang, Chunting Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models |
title | Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models |
title_full | Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models |
title_fullStr | Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models |
title_full_unstemmed | Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models |
title_short | Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models |
title_sort | risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality in acute fatty liver of pregnancy and new predictive models |
topic | Medicine |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8374939/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34422871 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.719906 |
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