Modified arteriosclerosis score predicts the outcomes of diabetic kidney disease

BACKGROUND: The significance of renal arteriosclerosis in the prediction of the renal outcomes of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) remains undetermined. METHODS: We enrolled 174 patients with DKD from three centres from January 2010 to July 2017. The severity and extent of arteriosclerosis were analysed on sections based on dual immunohistochemical staining of CD31 and α-smooth muscle actin. An X-tile plot was used to determine the optimal cut-off value. The primary endpoint was renal survival (RS), defined as the duration from renal biopsy to end-stage renal disease or death. RESULTS: The baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 135 qualified patients was 45 (29 ~ 70) ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and the average 24-h urine protein was 4.52 (2.45 ~ 7.66) g/24 h. The number of glomeruli in the biopsy specimens was 21.07 ± 9.7. The proportion of severe arteriosclerosis in the kidney positively correlated with the Renal Pathology Society glomerular classification (r = 0.28, P < 0.012), interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) (r = 0.39, P < 0.001), urine protein (r = 0.213, P = 0.013), systolic BP (r = 0.305, P = 0.000), and age (r = 0.220, P = 0.010) and significantly negatively correlated with baseline eGFR (r = − 0.285, P = 0.001). In the multivariable model, the primary outcomes were significantly correlated with glomerular class (HR: 1.72, CI: 1.15 ~ 2.57), IFTA (HR: 1.96, CI: 1.26 ~ 3.06) and the modified arteriosclerosis score (HR: 2.21, CI: 1.18 ~ 4.13). After risk adjustment, RS was independently associated with the baseline eGFR (HR: 0.97, CI: 0.96 ~ 0.98), urine proteinuria (HR: 1.10, CI: 1.04 ~ 1.17) and the modified arteriosclerosis score (HR: 2.01, CI: 1.10 ~ 3.67), and the nomogram exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C-index = 0.82, CI: 0.75 ~ 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: The severity and proportion of arteriosclerosis may be helpful prognostic indicators for DKD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-021-02492-x.