Cargando…

A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú

BACKGROUND: A proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú. METHODS: Extending a frame...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Meisner, Julianne, Frisbie, Lauren A., Munayco, César V., García, Patricia J., Cárcamo, César P., Morin, Cory W., Pigott, David M., Rabinowitz, Peter M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8379593/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34418974
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06530-9
_version_ 1783741038469316608
author Meisner, Julianne
Frisbie, Lauren A.
Munayco, César V.
García, Patricia J.
Cárcamo, César P.
Morin, Cory W.
Pigott, David M.
Rabinowitz, Peter M.
author_facet Meisner, Julianne
Frisbie, Lauren A.
Munayco, César V.
García, Patricia J.
Cárcamo, César P.
Morin, Cory W.
Pigott, David M.
Rabinowitz, Peter M.
author_sort Meisner, Julianne
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: A proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú. METHODS: Extending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Niño events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models. RESULTS: We found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highest in Selva Baja and Costa, and in summer and during El Niño events, with index case potential (stage 1) being high in both regions but outbreak receptivity (stage 2) being generally high in Selva Baja only. CONCLUSIONS: Stage 1 and 2 scores are well-suited to predicting outbreaks of Ae. aegypti-vectored diseases in this setting, however stage 3 scores appear better suited to diseases with direct human-to-human transmission. To prevent outbreaks, measures to detect index cases should be targeted to both Selva Baja and Costa, while Selva Baja should be prioritized for healthcare system strengthening. Successful extension of this framework from hemorrhagic fevers in Africa to an arbovirus in Latin America indicates its broad utility for outbreak and pandemic preparedness and response activities. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06530-9.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8379593
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher BioMed Central
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-83795932021-08-23 A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú Meisner, Julianne Frisbie, Lauren A. Munayco, César V. García, Patricia J. Cárcamo, César P. Morin, Cory W. Pigott, David M. Rabinowitz, Peter M. BMC Infect Dis Research BACKGROUND: A proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú. METHODS: Extending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Niño events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models. RESULTS: We found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highest in Selva Baja and Costa, and in summer and during El Niño events, with index case potential (stage 1) being high in both regions but outbreak receptivity (stage 2) being generally high in Selva Baja only. CONCLUSIONS: Stage 1 and 2 scores are well-suited to predicting outbreaks of Ae. aegypti-vectored diseases in this setting, however stage 3 scores appear better suited to diseases with direct human-to-human transmission. To prevent outbreaks, measures to detect index cases should be targeted to both Selva Baja and Costa, while Selva Baja should be prioritized for healthcare system strengthening. Successful extension of this framework from hemorrhagic fevers in Africa to an arbovirus in Latin America indicates its broad utility for outbreak and pandemic preparedness and response activities. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06530-9. BioMed Central 2021-08-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8379593/ /pubmed/34418974 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06530-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Meisner, Julianne
Frisbie, Lauren A.
Munayco, César V.
García, Patricia J.
Cárcamo, César P.
Morin, Cory W.
Pigott, David M.
Rabinowitz, Peter M.
A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú
title A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú
title_full A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú
title_fullStr A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú
title_full_unstemmed A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú
title_short A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú
title_sort novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in perú
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8379593/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34418974
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06530-9
work_keys_str_mv AT meisnerjulianne anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT frisbielaurena anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT munaycocesarv anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT garciapatriciaj anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT carcamocesarp anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT morincoryw anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT pigottdavidm anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT rabinowitzpeterm anovelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT meisnerjulianne novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT frisbielaurena novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT munaycocesarv novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT garciapatriciaj novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT carcamocesarp novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT morincoryw novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT pigottdavidm novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu
AT rabinowitzpeterm novelapproachtomodelingepidemicvulnerabilityappliedtoaedesaegyptivectoreddiseasesinperu