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How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs
This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we dis...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8379610/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6 |
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author | Karimov, Shyngys Konings, Jozef |
author_facet | Karimov, Shyngys Konings, Jozef |
author_sort | Karimov, Shyngys |
collection | PubMed |
description | This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8379610 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83796102021-08-23 How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs Karimov, Shyngys Konings, Jozef Int Econ Econ Policy Original Paper This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-08-21 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8379610/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Karimov, Shyngys Konings, Jozef How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs |
title | How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs |
title_full | How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs |
title_fullStr | How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs |
title_full_unstemmed | How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs |
title_short | How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs |
title_sort | how lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8379610/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6 |
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