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An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator

The whole world is still shaken by the new corona virus and many countries are starting opting for the lockdown again after the first wave that already killed thousands of people. New observations also show that the virus spreads quickly during the cold period closer to winter season. On the other s...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ahmed, Idris, Doungmo Goufo, Emile F., Yusuf, Abdullahi, Kumam, Poom, Chaipanya, Parin, Nonlaopon, Kamsing
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8381971/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.01.041
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author Ahmed, Idris
Doungmo Goufo, Emile F.
Yusuf, Abdullahi
Kumam, Poom
Chaipanya, Parin
Nonlaopon, Kamsing
author_facet Ahmed, Idris
Doungmo Goufo, Emile F.
Yusuf, Abdullahi
Kumam, Poom
Chaipanya, Parin
Nonlaopon, Kamsing
author_sort Ahmed, Idris
collection PubMed
description The whole world is still shaken by the new corona virus and many countries are starting opting for the lockdown again after the first wave that already killed thousands of people. New observations also show that the virus spreads quickly during the cold period closer to winter season. On the other side, the number of new infections decreases considerably during hot period closer to summer time. The geographic structure of our planet is such that when some countries (in a hemisphere) are in their winter season, others in the other hemisphere are in their summer season. However, we have observed in the world some countries undertaking national lockdown during their summer time, which result in their economy to be hugely hit. Other factors, beside the lockdown, have also impacted negatively the socio-economic situation in affected countries. These include, among others, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) susceptible to combine to the new corona virus. The new corona virus is indeed recent and many of its effect and impact on the society are still unknown and are still to be uncovered. Hence we use here the of Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative to mathematically express and analyses a model of HIV disease combined with COVID-19 to assess the pandemic situation in many countries affected, such as South Africa, United Kingdom (UK), China, Spain, United States of America (USA), and Italy. A way to achieve that is to perform stability and bifurcation analysis. It is also possible to investigate in which conditions the combined model contains a forward and a backward bifurcation. Moreover, utilizing the techniques of Schaefer and Banach fixed point theorems, existence and uniqueness of solutions of the generalized fractional model were presented. Also, the Atangana-Baleanu fractional (generalized) HIV-COVID-19 con-infection model is solved numerically via well-known and effective numerical scheme and a predicted prevalence for the COVID-19 is provided. The global trend shown by the numerical simulation proves that the disease will stabilize at a later stage when adequate measures are taken.
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spelling pubmed-83819712021-08-23 An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator Ahmed, Idris Doungmo Goufo, Emile F. Yusuf, Abdullahi Kumam, Poom Chaipanya, Parin Nonlaopon, Kamsing Alexandria Engineering Journal Article The whole world is still shaken by the new corona virus and many countries are starting opting for the lockdown again after the first wave that already killed thousands of people. New observations also show that the virus spreads quickly during the cold period closer to winter season. On the other side, the number of new infections decreases considerably during hot period closer to summer time. The geographic structure of our planet is such that when some countries (in a hemisphere) are in their winter season, others in the other hemisphere are in their summer season. However, we have observed in the world some countries undertaking national lockdown during their summer time, which result in their economy to be hugely hit. Other factors, beside the lockdown, have also impacted negatively the socio-economic situation in affected countries. These include, among others, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) susceptible to combine to the new corona virus. The new corona virus is indeed recent and many of its effect and impact on the society are still unknown and are still to be uncovered. Hence we use here the of Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative to mathematically express and analyses a model of HIV disease combined with COVID-19 to assess the pandemic situation in many countries affected, such as South Africa, United Kingdom (UK), China, Spain, United States of America (USA), and Italy. A way to achieve that is to perform stability and bifurcation analysis. It is also possible to investigate in which conditions the combined model contains a forward and a backward bifurcation. Moreover, utilizing the techniques of Schaefer and Banach fixed point theorems, existence and uniqueness of solutions of the generalized fractional model were presented. Also, the Atangana-Baleanu fractional (generalized) HIV-COVID-19 con-infection model is solved numerically via well-known and effective numerical scheme and a predicted prevalence for the COVID-19 is provided. The global trend shown by the numerical simulation proves that the disease will stabilize at a later stage when adequate measures are taken. THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021-06 2021-01-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8381971/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.01.041 Text en © 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Ahmed, Idris
Doungmo Goufo, Emile F.
Yusuf, Abdullahi
Kumam, Poom
Chaipanya, Parin
Nonlaopon, Kamsing
An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator
title An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator
title_full An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator
title_fullStr An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator
title_full_unstemmed An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator
title_short An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator
title_sort epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined hiv-covid-19 co-infection model via abc-fractional operator
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8381971/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.01.041
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