Sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau of China

CONTEXT: Climate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services. OBJECTIVES: This study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning. METHODS: We used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau. RESULTS: Carbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01320-9.