Education policies to increase rural physicians in Japan: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND: Japan has established comprehensive education-scholarship programs to supply physicians in rural areas. Their entrants now comprise 16% of all medical students, and graduates must work in rural areas for a designated number of years. These programs are now being adopted outside Japan, but their medium-term outcomes and inter-program differences are unknown. METHODS: A nationwide prospective cohort study of newly licensed physicians 2014–2018 (n = 2454) of the four major types of the programs—Jichi Medical University (Jichi); regional quota with scholarship; non-quota with scholarship (scholarship alone); and quota without scholarship (quota alone)—and all Japanese physicians in the same postgraduate year (n = 40,293) was conducted with follow-up workplace information from the Physician Census 2018, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. In addition, annual cross-sectional survey for prefectural governments and medical schools 2014–2019 was conducted to obtain information on the results of National Physician License Examination and retention status for contractual workforce. RESULTS: Passing rate of the National Physician License Examination was highest in Jichi, followed in descending order by quota with scholarship, the other two programs, and all medical graduates. The retention rate for contractual rural service of Jichi graduates 5 years after graduation (n = 683; 98%) was higher than that of quota with scholarship (2868; 90%; P < 0.001) and scholarship alone (2220; 81% < 0.001). Relative risks of working in municipalities with the least population density quintile in Jichi, quota with scholarship, scholarship alone, and quota alone in postgraduate year 5 were 4.0 (95% CI 3.7–4.4; P < 0.001), 3.1 (2.6–3.7; < 0.001), 2.5 (2.1–3.0; < 0.001), and 2.5 (1.9–3.3; < 0.001) as compared with all Japanese physicians. There was no significant difference between each program and all physicians in the proportion of those who specialized in internal medicine or general practice in postgraduate years 3 to 5 CONCLUSIONS: Japan’s education policies to produce rural physicians are effective but the degree of effectiveness varies among the programs. Policymakers and medical educators should plan their future rural workforce policies with reference to the effectiveness and variations of these programs. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12960-021-00644-6.