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Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level dynamics. We developed a susceptible-exposed-i...

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Autores principales: Buchwald, Andrea G., Bayham, Jude, Adams, Jimi, Bortz, David, Colborn, Kathryn, Zarella, Olivia, Buran, Meghan, Samet, Jonathan, Ghosh, Debashis, Herlihy, Rachel, Carlton, Elizabeth J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8386789/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34193334
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2709.204167
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author Buchwald, Andrea G.
Bayham, Jude
Adams, Jimi
Bortz, David
Colborn, Kathryn
Zarella, Olivia
Buran, Meghan
Samet, Jonathan
Ghosh, Debashis
Herlihy, Rachel
Carlton, Elizabeth J.
author_facet Buchwald, Andrea G.
Bayham, Jude
Adams, Jimi
Bortz, David
Colborn, Kathryn
Zarella, Olivia
Buran, Meghan
Samet, Jonathan
Ghosh, Debashis
Herlihy, Rachel
Carlton, Elizabeth J.
author_sort Buchwald, Andrea G.
collection PubMed
description The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level dynamics. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission model, parameterized to Colorado, USA‒specific data, to estimate the impact of coronavirus disease‒related policy measures on mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in real time. During March‒June 2020, we estimated unknown parameter values and generated scenario-based projections of future clinical care needs. Early coronavirus disease policy measures, including a stay-at-home order, were accompanied by substantial decreases in mobility and reduced the effective reproductive number well below 1. When some restrictions were eased in late April, mobility increased to near baseline levels, but transmission remained low (effective reproductive number <1) through early June. Over time, our model parameters were adjusted to more closely reflect reality in Colorado, leading to modest changes in estimates of intervention effects and more conservative long-term projections.
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spelling pubmed-83867892021-09-04 Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA Buchwald, Andrea G. Bayham, Jude Adams, Jimi Bortz, David Colborn, Kathryn Zarella, Olivia Buran, Meghan Samet, Jonathan Ghosh, Debashis Herlihy, Rachel Carlton, Elizabeth J. Emerg Infect Dis Research The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level dynamics. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission model, parameterized to Colorado, USA‒specific data, to estimate the impact of coronavirus disease‒related policy measures on mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in real time. During March‒June 2020, we estimated unknown parameter values and generated scenario-based projections of future clinical care needs. Early coronavirus disease policy measures, including a stay-at-home order, were accompanied by substantial decreases in mobility and reduced the effective reproductive number well below 1. When some restrictions were eased in late April, mobility increased to near baseline levels, but transmission remained low (effective reproductive number <1) through early June. Over time, our model parameters were adjusted to more closely reflect reality in Colorado, leading to modest changes in estimates of intervention effects and more conservative long-term projections. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2021-09 /pmc/articles/PMC8386789/ /pubmed/34193334 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2709.204167 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited.
spellingShingle Research
Buchwald, Andrea G.
Bayham, Jude
Adams, Jimi
Bortz, David
Colborn, Kathryn
Zarella, Olivia
Buran, Meghan
Samet, Jonathan
Ghosh, Debashis
Herlihy, Rachel
Carlton, Elizabeth J.
Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA
title Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA
title_full Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA
title_fullStr Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA
title_short Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA
title_sort estimating the impact of statewide policies to reduce spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in real time, colorado, usa
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8386789/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34193334
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2709.204167
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