Is the Life History Flexibility of Cold Desert Annuals Broad Enough to Cope with Predicted Climate Change? The Case of Erodium oxyrhinchum in Central Asia

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The broad objective of our study was to evaluate the life history flexibility of the annual Erodium oxyrhinchum in relation to the predicted changes in precipitation in the cold desert due to climate change. We compared the effects of dry and wet springs and dry and wet autumns on growth and F2 seed dormancy of plants from spring- and autumn-germinated seeds of the cold desert annual E. oxyrhinchum from 2016–2020. Also, the future climate for the region was modeled. Our results found that given the flexibility in the life history of E. oxyrhinchum, it seems unlikely that future climate change will have much of an impact on the life history and dominant position of this species in the herbaceous plant community in the unpredictable-rainfall environment of the cold desert. Our study challenges the commonly-held perception that desert organisms may be negatively affected by climate change. ABSTRACT: Interannual seasonal variability in precipitation may strongly affect the life history and growth of desert annual plants. We compared the effects of dry and wet springs and dry and wet autumns on growth and F2 seed dormancy of plants from spring (SG)- and autumn (AG)-germinated seeds of the cold desert annual Erodium oxyrhinchum. Vegetative and reproductive growth and F2 seed dormancy and germination were monitored from September 2016 to November 2020 in the sandy Gurbantunggut Desert in NW China in Central Asia. Dry autumns decreased the density of AG plants, and dry springs decreased the density of SG plants and growth of SG and AG plants. In dry springs, SG plants were more sensitive to precipitation than AG plants, while in wet springs SG and AG plants had similar responses to precipitation. During growth in both dry and wet springs, most morphological characters of SG and AG plants initially increased rapidly in size/number and then plateaued or decreased, except for SG plants in dry springs. In dry springs, most morphological characters of AG plants were larger or more numerous than those of SG plants, and they were larger/more numerous for SG plants in wet than in dry springs. The percentage biomass allocated to reproduction in SG plants was slightly higher in a wet than in a dry spring. A much higher proportion of dormant seeds was produced by AG plants in a wet spring than in a dry spring. Projected changes in precipitation due to climate change in NW China are not likely to have much of an effect on the biology of this common desert annual plant.