The Environmental and Social Determinants of Health Matter in a Pandemic: Predictors of COVID-19 Case and Death Rates in New York City

Our research objective was to determine which environmental and social factors were predictive of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case and death rates in New York City (NYC), the original epicenter of the pandemic in the US, and any differential impacts among the boroughs. Data from various sources on the demographic, health, and environmental characteristics for NYC zip codes, neighborhoods, and boroughs were analyzed along with NYC government’s reported case and death rates by zip code. At the time of analysis, the Bronx had the highest COVID-19 case and death rates, while Manhattan had the lowest rates. Significant predictors of a higher COVID-19 case rate were determined to be proportion of residents aged 65 years plus; proportion of residents under 65 years with a disability; proportion of White residents; proportion of residents without health insurance; number of grocery stores; and a higher ozone level. For COVID-19 death rates, predictors include proportion of residents aged 65 years plus; proportion of residents who are not US citizens; proportion on food stamps; proportion of White residents; proportion of residents under 65 years without health insurance; and a higher level of ozone. Results across boroughs were mixed, which highlights the unique demographic, socioeconomic, and community characteristics of each borough. To reduce COVID-19 inequities, it is vital that the NYC government center the environmental and social determinants of health in policies and community-engaged interventions adapted to each borough.