Estimating the burden of pediatric HIV in an ‘A’ category district in India: an epidemiological study

BACKGROUND: India lacks epidemiological information on the disease burden of pediatric HIV. The National AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates the numbers of HIV-positive children as a proportion of adult persons living with HIV. A third of HIV-positive children die before their first birthday and a half before they reach their second birthday. The early detection of HIV is crucial for the prevention of morbidities, growth delays, and death among HIV-positive children. METHODS: The study aimed to estimate the disease burden of pediatric HIV among children in ‘A’ category district of a high HIV prevalence state. An ‘A’ category district is defined by the presence of > 1% HIV prevalence among the general population, as estimated by HIV Sentinel Surveillance. The study used an innovative three-pronged strategy combining cross-sectional and longitudinal methods. The overall burden of pediatric HIV was calculated as a product of cases detected multiplied by a net inflation factor, for each of three strategies. RESULTS: The existing pool of HIV infection in the district is estimated to be 3266 (95% CI: 2621–4197) HIV positive children < 15 years of age, in a mid-year (2013) projected child population of about 1.4 million, thus giving an HIV prevalence of 0.23% (CI: 0.19–0.30) among children (0–14 years of age). The proportion of children among all people living with HIV in the district works out to 10.4% (CI: 8.6–13.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The study estimate of 0.23% HIV prevalence among children (0–14 years of age) is higher than the NACP estimates (0.02) and is 2.5 higher than the Karnataka state estimate (0.09)(22). Similarly, the proportion of children among all persons living with HIV in Belgaum district is 10.4% in this study, as against 6.54% for India. The study methodology is replicable for other settings and other diseases.