Spatio–Environmental Analysis of Vespula germanica Nest Records Explains Slow Invasion in South Africa

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Social wasp invasions can spread quickly and have serious impacts if they reach new regions with favourable climatic conditions. However, in areas less suitable to them, invasion patterns can show factors that may prevent their spread. We use nest records of the German wasp from the southern tip of South Africa, to map and analyse what habitats they seem to prefer. Factors investigated included temperature, rainfall, and moisture availability. We find that this invasive wasp prefers moister and cooler conditions, and because these habitats are patchy in the region they have invaded in South Africa, they can only spread slowly unassisted, and utmost between 50 and 200 km with the assistance of humans. This is the likely reason for the very slow invasion seen in South Africa. The spatial patterns we quantify here make it possible to use a remote-sensing approach to determine the suitability of an area for future invasions. Predicting the likelihood of invasions will greatly aid management actions. Public awareness around the potential accidental transport of the German wasp and similar species should also be undertaken. ABSTRACT: Investigating the distributions of invasive species in marginal habitats can give clues to the factors constraining invasive spread. Vespula germanica is the most widely distributed of all the invasive Vespids, which in the Southern Hemisphere typically have large extensive invasive populations. In contrast, the invasion into South Africa has been slow and is still confined to a small geographic area. Here we analyse the distribution of all recent nest records in South Africa (n = 405). The distance to main rivers, mean annual rainfall, summer normalised difference moisture index (NDMI) values, and mean annual temperatures (average, minimum, maximum, and summer maximum temperature) was measured for every nest. We find that value ranges of these variables are different between the value ranges recorded for nests, the general distribution area of the wasp, and the area of absence. Optimised Hot Spot Analysis was used to quantify spatial structure in the measured climatic variables. Generally, factors related to moisture stress set the environmental limits of V. germanica’s landscape distribution. Due to the strong preference of nesting sites close to river courses, for higher rainfall conditions, medium to medium-high NDMI values, and lower mean annual temperatures, it is unlikely that V. germanica will be able to spread uniformly where it is currently found in South Africa.