Modeling the Influence of Chronic Sleep Restriction on Cortisol Circadian Rhythms, with Implications for Metabolic Disorders

Chronic sleep deficiency is prevalent in modern society and is associated with increased risk of metabolic and other diseases. While the mechanisms by which chronic sleep deficiency induces pathophysiological changes are yet to be elucidated, the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis may be an important mediator of these effects. Cortisol, the primary hormone of the HPA axis, exhibits robust circadian rhythmicity and is moderately influenced by sleep and wake states and other physiology. Several studies have explored the effects of acute or chronic sleep deficiency (i.e., usually from self-selected chronic sleep restriction, CSR) on the HPA axis. Quantifying long-term changes in the circadian rhythm of cortisol under CSR in controlled conditions is inadequately studied due to practical limitations. We use a semi-mechanistic mathematical model of the HPA axis and the sleep/wake cycle to explore the influence of CSR on cortisol circadian rhythmicity. In qualitative agreement with experimental findings, model simulations predict that CSR results in physiologically relevant disruptions in the phase and amplitude of the cortisol rhythm. The mathematical model presented in this work provides a mechanistic framework to further explore how CSR might lead to HPA axis disruption and subsequent development of chronic metabolic complications.