The role of biomaterials for the energy transition from the lens of a national integrated assessment model

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) indicate biomass as an essential energy carrier to reduce GHG emissions in the global energy system. However, few IAMs represent the possibility of co-producing final energy carriers and feedstock. This study fills this gap by developing an integrated analysis of energy, land, and materials. This allows us to evaluate if the production of biofuels in a climate-constrained scenario can co-output biomaterials, being also driven by hydrocarbons/carbohydrates liquid streams made available from the transition to electromobility. The analysis was implemented through the incorporation of a materials module in the Brazilian Land Use and Energy System model. The findings show that bio-based petrochemicals account for 33% of the total petrochemical production in a stringent carbon dioxide mitigation scenario, in 2050. Most of this comes as co-products from facilities that produce advanced fuels as the main product. Moreover, from 2040 mobility electrification leads to the repurpose of ethanol for material production, compensating for the fuel market loss. Finally, the emergence of biorefineries to provide bio-based energy and feedstock reduces petroleum refining utilization in 2050, affecting the production of oil derivatives for energy purposes, and, hence, the GHG emissions associated with their production and combustion. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03201-1.