Conditional Survival and Annual Hazard Estimates of Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma

BACKGROUND: In the present study, we have tried to understand how the level of risk and survival probability changes over time for patients with classical Hodgkin’s lymphoma by employing conditional survival and annual hazard as dynamic estimates of prognosis and survival. METHODS: This retrospective study reviewed the clinical data of patients with newly diagnosed classical Hodgkin’s lymphoma admitted to Peking University Cancer Hospital between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2017. Conditional survival and annual hazard rate were defined as the survival probability and yearly event rate, respectively, assuming that patients have survived for a defined time. RESULTS: A total of 384 patients were included (median age, 32 years; range, 6–77 years), of which 218 (56.8%) patients had early-stage disease. The median follow-up time was 41.3 months. The 5-year conditional overall survival (COS) rates remained favorable and showed an increase from 89% at treatment to 94% at year 5, while the 5-year conditional failure-free survival (CFFS) rate increased from 70% at treatment to 96% at year 5. The annual hazard of failure decreased from over 15% at diagnosis to less than 5% after 3 years. Early-stage patients had constantly lower annual estimates for hazard of death (range, 0–3.0%) and failure (range, 0–14.3%). However, the hazard of failure in advanced-stage patients decreased from 24.2% at diagnosis to below 8% after 3 years, whereas the hazard of death was always at relatively low levels. Patients with a high IPS risk score (≥3) had significantly lower COS and CFFS during the first 4 years. Patients who received the BEACOPP regimen had better 5-year COS and 5-year CFFS than those who received the ABVD regimen. CONCLUSION: The survival probability increased and hazard of failure decreased over time.