Lumbar cerebrospinal fluid-to-brain extracellular fluid surrogacy is context-specific: insights from LeiCNS-PK3.0 simulations

Predicting brain pharmacokinetics is critical for central nervous system (CNS) drug development yet difficult due to ethical restrictions of human brain sampling. CNS pharmacokinetic (PK) profiles are often altered in CNS diseases due to disease-specific pathophysiology. We previously published a comprehensive CNS physiologically-based PK (PBPK) model that predicted the PK profiles of small drugs at brain and cerebrospinal fluid compartments. Here, we improved this model with brain non-specific binding and pH effect on drug ionization and passive transport. We refer to this improved model as Leiden CNS PBPK predictor V3.0 (LeiCNS-PK3.0). LeiCNS-PK3.0 predicted the unbound drug concentrations of brain ECF and CSF compartments in rats and humans with less than two-fold error. We then applied LeiCNS-PK3.0 to study the effect of altered cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dynamics, CSF volume and flow, on brain extracellular fluid (ECF) pharmacokinetics. The effect of altered CSF dynamics was simulated using LeiCNS-PK3.0 for six drugs and the resulting drug exposure at brain ECF and lumbar CSF were compared. Simulation results showed that altered CSF dynamics changed the CSF PK profiles, but not the brain ECF profiles, irrespective of the drug’s physicochemical properties. Our analysis supports the notion that lumbar CSF drug concentration is not an accurate surrogate of brain ECF, particularly in CNS diseases. Systems approaches account for multiple levels of CNS complexity and are better suited to predict brain PK. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10928-021-09768-7.