A potent weighted risk model for evaluating the occurrence and severity of diabetic foot ulcers

BACKGROUND: Diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) is a serious chronic complication of diabetes. This study aimed to establish weighted risk models for determining DFU occurrence and severity in diabetic patients. METHODS: This was a multi-center hospital-based cross-sectional study. A total of 1488 diabetic patients with or without an ulcer from three tertiary hospitals were included in the study. Random forest method was used to develop weighted risk models for assessing DFU risk and severity. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to validate the models and calculate the optimal cut-off values of the important risk factors. RESULTS: We developed potent weighted risk models for evaluating DFU occurrence and severity. The top eight important risk factors for DFU onset were plasma fibrinogen, neutrophil percentage and hemoglobin levels in whole blood, stroke, estimated glomerular filtration rate, age, duration of diabetes, and serum albumin levels. The top 10 important risk factors for DFU severity were serum albumin, neutrophil percentage and hemoglobin levels in whole blood, plasma fibrinogen, hemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hypertension, serum uric acid, diabetic retinopathy, and sex. Furthermore, the area under curve values in the models using plasma fibrinogen as a single risk factor for determining DFU risk and severity were 0.86 (sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.87) and 0.73 (sensitivity 0.76, specificity 0.58), respectively. The optimal cut-off values of plasma fibrinogen for determining DFU risk and severity were 3.88 g/L and 4.74 g/L, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We have established potent weighted risk models for DFU onset and severity, based on which precise prevention strategies can be formulated. Modification of important risk factors may help reduce the incidence and progression of DFUs in diabetic patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13098-021-00711-x.