Predictive Factors for Pathologic Complete Response Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND: An accurate assessment of potential pathologic complete response(pCR) following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy(NCRT) is important for the appropriate treatment of rectal cancer. However, the factors that predict the response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy have not been well defined. Therefore, this study analyzed the predictive factors on the development of pCR after neoadjuvant chemoradiation for rectal cancer. METHODS: From January 2008 to January 2018, a total of 432 consecutive patients from a single institution patients who underwent a long-course neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy were reviewed in this study. The clinicopathological features were analyzed to identify predictive factors for pathologic complete response in rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiation. RESULTS: The rate of pathologic complete response in rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiation was 20.8%, patients were divided into the pCR and non-pCR groups. The two groups were well balanced in terms of age, gender, body mass index, ASA score, tumor stage, tumor differentiation, tumor location, surgical procedure, chemotherapy regimen and radiation dose. The multivariate analysis revealed that a pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level of ≤5 ng/mL and an interval of ≥8 weeks between the completion of chemoradiation and surgical resection were independent risk factors of an increased rate of pCR. CONCLUSIONS: Pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level of ≤5 ng/mL and an interval of ≥8 weeks between the completion of chemoradiation and surgical resection are predictive factors for pathologic complete response in rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Using these predictive factors, we can predict the prognosis of patients and develop adaptive treatment strategies. A wait-and-see policy might be possible in highly selective cases.