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Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa
Since 2010, the introduction of an effective serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine has led to the near-elimination of invasive Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A disease in Africa’s meningitis belt. However, a significant burden of disease and epidemics due to other bacterial meningitis pathog...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8409536/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34469549 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiab154 |
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author | Walker, Joseph Soeters, Heidi M Novak, Ryan Diallo, Alpha Oumar Vuong, Jeni Bicaba, Brice Wilfried Medah, Isaie Yaméogo, Issaka Ouédraogo-Traoré, Rasmata Gamougame, Kadidja Moto, Daugla Doumagoum Dembélé, Assétou Y Guindo, Ibrehima Coulibaly, Souleymane Issifou, Djibo Zaneidou, Maman Assane, Hamadi Nikiema, Christelle Sadji, Adodo Fernandez, Katya Mwenda, Jason M Bita, Andre Lingani, Clément Tall, Haoua Tarbangdo, Félix Sawadogo, Guetwende Paye, Marietou F Wang, Xin McNamara, Lucy A |
author_facet | Walker, Joseph Soeters, Heidi M Novak, Ryan Diallo, Alpha Oumar Vuong, Jeni Bicaba, Brice Wilfried Medah, Isaie Yaméogo, Issaka Ouédraogo-Traoré, Rasmata Gamougame, Kadidja Moto, Daugla Doumagoum Dembélé, Assétou Y Guindo, Ibrehima Coulibaly, Souleymane Issifou, Djibo Zaneidou, Maman Assane, Hamadi Nikiema, Christelle Sadji, Adodo Fernandez, Katya Mwenda, Jason M Bita, Andre Lingani, Clément Tall, Haoua Tarbangdo, Félix Sawadogo, Guetwende Paye, Marietou F Wang, Xin McNamara, Lucy A |
author_sort | Walker, Joseph |
collection | PubMed |
description | Since 2010, the introduction of an effective serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine has led to the near-elimination of invasive Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A disease in Africa’s meningitis belt. However, a significant burden of disease and epidemics due to other bacterial meningitis pathogens remain in the region. High-quality surveillance data with laboratory confirmation is important to monitor circulating bacterial meningitis pathogens and design appropriate interventions, but complete testing of all reported cases is often infeasible. Here, we use case-based surveillance data from 5 countries in the meningitis belt to determine how accurately estimates of the distribution of causative pathogens would represent the true distribution under different laboratory testing strategies. Detailed case-based surveillance data was collected by the MenAfriNet surveillance consortium in up to 3 seasons from participating districts in 5 countries. For each unique country-season pair, we simulated the accuracy of laboratory surveillance by repeatedly drawing subsets of tested cases and calculating the margin of error of the estimated proportion of cases caused by each pathogen (the greatest pathogen-specific absolute error in proportions between the subset and the full set of cases). Across the 12 country-season pairs analyzed, the 95% credible intervals around estimates of the proportion of cases caused by each pathogen had median widths of ±0.13, ±0.07, and ±0.05, respectively, when random samples of 25%, 50%, and 75% of cases were selected for testing. The level of geographic stratification in the sampling process did not meaningfully affect accuracy estimates. These findings can inform testing thresholds for laboratory surveillance programs in the meningitis belt. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8409536 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Oxford University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-84095362021-09-02 Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa Walker, Joseph Soeters, Heidi M Novak, Ryan Diallo, Alpha Oumar Vuong, Jeni Bicaba, Brice Wilfried Medah, Isaie Yaméogo, Issaka Ouédraogo-Traoré, Rasmata Gamougame, Kadidja Moto, Daugla Doumagoum Dembélé, Assétou Y Guindo, Ibrehima Coulibaly, Souleymane Issifou, Djibo Zaneidou, Maman Assane, Hamadi Nikiema, Christelle Sadji, Adodo Fernandez, Katya Mwenda, Jason M Bita, Andre Lingani, Clément Tall, Haoua Tarbangdo, Félix Sawadogo, Guetwende Paye, Marietou F Wang, Xin McNamara, Lucy A J Infect Dis Laboratory Techniques for Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Disease Surveillance Since 2010, the introduction of an effective serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine has led to the near-elimination of invasive Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A disease in Africa’s meningitis belt. However, a significant burden of disease and epidemics due to other bacterial meningitis pathogens remain in the region. High-quality surveillance data with laboratory confirmation is important to monitor circulating bacterial meningitis pathogens and design appropriate interventions, but complete testing of all reported cases is often infeasible. Here, we use case-based surveillance data from 5 countries in the meningitis belt to determine how accurately estimates of the distribution of causative pathogens would represent the true distribution under different laboratory testing strategies. Detailed case-based surveillance data was collected by the MenAfriNet surveillance consortium in up to 3 seasons from participating districts in 5 countries. For each unique country-season pair, we simulated the accuracy of laboratory surveillance by repeatedly drawing subsets of tested cases and calculating the margin of error of the estimated proportion of cases caused by each pathogen (the greatest pathogen-specific absolute error in proportions between the subset and the full set of cases). Across the 12 country-season pairs analyzed, the 95% credible intervals around estimates of the proportion of cases caused by each pathogen had median widths of ±0.13, ±0.07, and ±0.05, respectively, when random samples of 25%, 50%, and 75% of cases were selected for testing. The level of geographic stratification in the sampling process did not meaningfully affect accuracy estimates. These findings can inform testing thresholds for laboratory surveillance programs in the meningitis belt. Oxford University Press 2021-09-01 /pmc/articles/PMC8409536/ /pubmed/34469549 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiab154 Text en © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Laboratory Techniques for Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Disease Surveillance Walker, Joseph Soeters, Heidi M Novak, Ryan Diallo, Alpha Oumar Vuong, Jeni Bicaba, Brice Wilfried Medah, Isaie Yaméogo, Issaka Ouédraogo-Traoré, Rasmata Gamougame, Kadidja Moto, Daugla Doumagoum Dembélé, Assétou Y Guindo, Ibrehima Coulibaly, Souleymane Issifou, Djibo Zaneidou, Maman Assane, Hamadi Nikiema, Christelle Sadji, Adodo Fernandez, Katya Mwenda, Jason M Bita, Andre Lingani, Clément Tall, Haoua Tarbangdo, Félix Sawadogo, Guetwende Paye, Marietou F Wang, Xin McNamara, Lucy A Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa |
title | Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa |
title_full | Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa |
title_fullStr | Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa |
title_short | Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa |
title_sort | modeling optimal laboratory testing strategies for bacterial meningitis surveillance in africa |
topic | Laboratory Techniques for Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Disease Surveillance |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8409536/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34469549 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiab154 |
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