Low CD4 T cell count predicts radiological progression in severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients: a case control study

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread globally and caused over 3 million deaths, posing great challenge on public health and medical systems. Limited data are available predictive factors for disease progression. We aim to assess clinical and radiological predictors for pulmonary aggravation in severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Patients with confirmed COVID-19 in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, China, between Feb. 6th, 2020 and Feb. 21st, 2020 were retrospectively collected. Enrolled patients were divided into non-progression group and progression group based on initial and follow-up chest CTs. Clinical, laboratory, and radiological variables were analyzed. RESULTS: During the study period, 162 patients were identified and a total of 126 patients, including 97 (77.0%) severe cases and 29 (23.0%) critically ill cases were included in the final analysis. Median age was 66.0 (IQR, 56.0–71.3) years. Median time from onset to initial chest CT was 15.0 (IQR, 12.0–20.0) days and median interval to follow-up was 7.0 (IQR, 5.0–7.0) days. Compared with those who did not progress (n=111, 88.1%), patients in the progression group (n=15, 11.9%) had significantly higher percentage of peak body temperature >38 °C (P=0.002), lower platelet count (P=0.011), lower CD4 T cell count (P=0.002), lower CD8 count (P=0.011), higher creatine kinase level (P=0.002), and lower glomerular filtration rate (P=0.018). On both univariate and multivariable analysis, only CD4 T cell count <200/µL was significant (OR, 6.804; 95% CI, 1.450–31.934; P=0.015) for predicting pulmonary progression. CONCLUSIONS: Low CD4 T cell count predicts progression of pulmonary change in severe and critically ill patients with COVID-19.