Determining passenger car equivalent (PCEs) for pretimed signalized intersections with severe motorcycle composition using Bayesian linear regression

Pretimed signalized intersection is known as a common source of congestion, especially in urban heterogeneous traffic. Furthermore, the accuracy of saturation flow rate is found to cause efficient and vital capacity estimation, in order to ensure optimal design and operation of the signal timings. Presently, the traffic also consists of diverse vehicle presence, each with its own static and dynamic characteristics. The passenger car equivalent (PCE) in an essential unit is also used to measure heterogenous traffic into the PCU (Passenger Car Unit). Based on the collection of observed data at three targets in Banda Aceh City, this study aims to redetermine the PCEs by using Bayesian linear regression, through the Random-walk Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling. The result showed that the obtained PCE values were 0.24, 1.0, and 0.80 for motorcycle (MC), passenger car (PC), and motorized rickshaw (MR), respectively. It also showed that a significant deviation was found between new and IHCM PCEs, as the source of error was partially due to the vehicle compositions. The present traffic characteristics were also substantially different from the prevailing conditions of IHCM 1997. Therefore, the proposed PCEs enhanced the accuracy of base saturation flow prediction, provided support for traffic operation design, alleviated congestion, and reduced delay within the city, which in turn improved the estimation of signalized intersection capacity.