Cargando…

Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan

Due to COVID-19, many countries including Japan have implemented a suspension of economic activities for infection control. It has contributed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 but caused severe economic losses. Today, several promising vaccines have been developed and are already being distrib...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Sunohara, Satoshi, Asakura, Toshiaki, Kimura, Takashi, Ozawa, Shun, Oshima, Satoshi, Yamauchi, Daigo, Tamakoshi, Akiko
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8412346/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34473809
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257107
_version_ 1783747434701127680
author Sunohara, Satoshi
Asakura, Toshiaki
Kimura, Takashi
Ozawa, Shun
Oshima, Satoshi
Yamauchi, Daigo
Tamakoshi, Akiko
author_facet Sunohara, Satoshi
Asakura, Toshiaki
Kimura, Takashi
Ozawa, Shun
Oshima, Satoshi
Yamauchi, Daigo
Tamakoshi, Akiko
author_sort Sunohara, Satoshi
collection PubMed
description Due to COVID-19, many countries including Japan have implemented a suspension of economic activities for infection control. It has contributed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 but caused severe economic losses. Today, several promising vaccines have been developed and are already being distributed in some countries. Therefore, we evaluated various vaccine and intensive countermeasure strategies with constraint of economic loss using SEIR model to obtain knowledge of how to balance economy with infection control in Japan. Our main results were that the vaccination strategy that prioritized younger generation was better in terms of deaths when a linear relationship between lockdown intensity and acceptable economic loss was assumed. On the other hand, when a non-linearity relationship was introduced, implying that the strong lockdown with small economic loss was possible, the old first strategies were best in the settings of small basic reproduction number. These results indicated a high potential of remote work when prioritizing vaccination for the old generation. When focusing on only the old first strategies as the Japanese government has decided to do, the strategy vaccinating the young next to the old was superior to the others when a non-linear relationship was assumed due to sufficient reduction of contact with small economic loss.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8412346
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-84123462021-09-03 Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan Sunohara, Satoshi Asakura, Toshiaki Kimura, Takashi Ozawa, Shun Oshima, Satoshi Yamauchi, Daigo Tamakoshi, Akiko PLoS One Research Article Due to COVID-19, many countries including Japan have implemented a suspension of economic activities for infection control. It has contributed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 but caused severe economic losses. Today, several promising vaccines have been developed and are already being distributed in some countries. Therefore, we evaluated various vaccine and intensive countermeasure strategies with constraint of economic loss using SEIR model to obtain knowledge of how to balance economy with infection control in Japan. Our main results were that the vaccination strategy that prioritized younger generation was better in terms of deaths when a linear relationship between lockdown intensity and acceptable economic loss was assumed. On the other hand, when a non-linearity relationship was introduced, implying that the strong lockdown with small economic loss was possible, the old first strategies were best in the settings of small basic reproduction number. These results indicated a high potential of remote work when prioritizing vaccination for the old generation. When focusing on only the old first strategies as the Japanese government has decided to do, the strategy vaccinating the young next to the old was superior to the others when a non-linear relationship was assumed due to sufficient reduction of contact with small economic loss. Public Library of Science 2021-09-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8412346/ /pubmed/34473809 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257107 Text en © 2021 Sunohara et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Sunohara, Satoshi
Asakura, Toshiaki
Kimura, Takashi
Ozawa, Shun
Oshima, Satoshi
Yamauchi, Daigo
Tamakoshi, Akiko
Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan
title Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan
title_full Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan
title_fullStr Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan
title_full_unstemmed Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan
title_short Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan
title_sort effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against covid-19 in japan
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8412346/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34473809
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257107
work_keys_str_mv AT sunoharasatoshi effectivevaccineallocationstrategiesbalancingeconomywithinfectioncontrolagainstcovid19injapan
AT asakuratoshiaki effectivevaccineallocationstrategiesbalancingeconomywithinfectioncontrolagainstcovid19injapan
AT kimuratakashi effectivevaccineallocationstrategiesbalancingeconomywithinfectioncontrolagainstcovid19injapan
AT ozawashun effectivevaccineallocationstrategiesbalancingeconomywithinfectioncontrolagainstcovid19injapan
AT oshimasatoshi effectivevaccineallocationstrategiesbalancingeconomywithinfectioncontrolagainstcovid19injapan
AT yamauchidaigo effectivevaccineallocationstrategiesbalancingeconomywithinfectioncontrolagainstcovid19injapan
AT tamakoshiakiko effectivevaccineallocationstrategiesbalancingeconomywithinfectioncontrolagainstcovid19injapan