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Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan
Due to COVID-19, many countries including Japan have implemented a suspension of economic activities for infection control. It has contributed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 but caused severe economic losses. Today, several promising vaccines have been developed and are already being distrib...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8412346/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34473809 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257107 |
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author | Sunohara, Satoshi Asakura, Toshiaki Kimura, Takashi Ozawa, Shun Oshima, Satoshi Yamauchi, Daigo Tamakoshi, Akiko |
author_facet | Sunohara, Satoshi Asakura, Toshiaki Kimura, Takashi Ozawa, Shun Oshima, Satoshi Yamauchi, Daigo Tamakoshi, Akiko |
author_sort | Sunohara, Satoshi |
collection | PubMed |
description | Due to COVID-19, many countries including Japan have implemented a suspension of economic activities for infection control. It has contributed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 but caused severe economic losses. Today, several promising vaccines have been developed and are already being distributed in some countries. Therefore, we evaluated various vaccine and intensive countermeasure strategies with constraint of economic loss using SEIR model to obtain knowledge of how to balance economy with infection control in Japan. Our main results were that the vaccination strategy that prioritized younger generation was better in terms of deaths when a linear relationship between lockdown intensity and acceptable economic loss was assumed. On the other hand, when a non-linearity relationship was introduced, implying that the strong lockdown with small economic loss was possible, the old first strategies were best in the settings of small basic reproduction number. These results indicated a high potential of remote work when prioritizing vaccination for the old generation. When focusing on only the old first strategies as the Japanese government has decided to do, the strategy vaccinating the young next to the old was superior to the others when a non-linear relationship was assumed due to sufficient reduction of contact with small economic loss. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8412346 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-84123462021-09-03 Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan Sunohara, Satoshi Asakura, Toshiaki Kimura, Takashi Ozawa, Shun Oshima, Satoshi Yamauchi, Daigo Tamakoshi, Akiko PLoS One Research Article Due to COVID-19, many countries including Japan have implemented a suspension of economic activities for infection control. It has contributed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 but caused severe economic losses. Today, several promising vaccines have been developed and are already being distributed in some countries. Therefore, we evaluated various vaccine and intensive countermeasure strategies with constraint of economic loss using SEIR model to obtain knowledge of how to balance economy with infection control in Japan. Our main results were that the vaccination strategy that prioritized younger generation was better in terms of deaths when a linear relationship between lockdown intensity and acceptable economic loss was assumed. On the other hand, when a non-linearity relationship was introduced, implying that the strong lockdown with small economic loss was possible, the old first strategies were best in the settings of small basic reproduction number. These results indicated a high potential of remote work when prioritizing vaccination for the old generation. When focusing on only the old first strategies as the Japanese government has decided to do, the strategy vaccinating the young next to the old was superior to the others when a non-linear relationship was assumed due to sufficient reduction of contact with small economic loss. Public Library of Science 2021-09-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8412346/ /pubmed/34473809 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257107 Text en © 2021 Sunohara et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Sunohara, Satoshi Asakura, Toshiaki Kimura, Takashi Ozawa, Shun Oshima, Satoshi Yamauchi, Daigo Tamakoshi, Akiko Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan |
title | Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan |
title_full | Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan |
title_fullStr | Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan |
title_full_unstemmed | Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan |
title_short | Effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against COVID-19 in Japan |
title_sort | effective vaccine allocation strategies, balancing economy with infection control against covid-19 in japan |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8412346/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34473809 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257107 |
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