Hypertriglyceridemia as an Independent Predictor for Ten-Year Incidence of Diabetes in Thais

BACKGROUND: Fasting hypertriglyceridemia commonly associates with insulin resistance and is frequently prevalent in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). However, hypertriglyceridemia has not been investigated as an independent predictor of incidence of DM, especially in Thais. METHODS: A 10-year hospital-based retrospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care setting in Thailand. Health check-up data in 2007 from healthy participants without underlying disease were extracted as baseline data. In 2017, 10 years following an initial examination, the diagnosis of DM and other laboratory data were identified. Hypertriglyceridemia was defined as fasting triglyceride level ≥ 150 mg/dL. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to demonstrate a relationship between fasting TG level and probability of incident DM in 10 years. An association between hypertriglyceridemia and 10-year incidence of DM was evaluated using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1342 non-diabetic adults with complete both baseline and 10-year follow-up data were included in the analysis. The incidence of DM in the study period was 10.3%. Baseline fasting triglyceride level is significantly higher in participants with incidence of DM, with a median difference of 45 mg/dL (P < 0.01). Univariable logistic regression showed that hypertriglyceridemia was associated with 10-year incidence of DM (odds ratio (OR) 3.03, 95% CI 2.12–4.35). After adjusting for potential confounders, hypertriglyceridemia remained significantly associated with incidence of DM (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.61–3.39). CONCLUSION: Fasting triglyceride level is an independent risk factor for the development of new-onset DM. Testing for hypertriglyceridemia in people without diabetes may be an alternative screening tool to identify populations at risk of developing future DM, as well as providing triglyceride as a new target for DM risk reduction.