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Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030
BACKGROUND: Lung cancer incidence and prevalence is increasing worldwide and there is a focus on prevention, early detection, and development of new treatments which will impact the epidemiological patterns of lung cancer. The clinical characteristics and the trends in incidence, mortality, and prev...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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BioMed Central
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8414713/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34479490 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-08696-6 |
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author | Jakobsen, Erik Olsen, Karen Ege Bliddal, Mette Hornbak, Malene Persson, Gitte F. Green, Anders |
author_facet | Jakobsen, Erik Olsen, Karen Ege Bliddal, Mette Hornbak, Malene Persson, Gitte F. Green, Anders |
author_sort | Jakobsen, Erik |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Lung cancer incidence and prevalence is increasing worldwide and there is a focus on prevention, early detection, and development of new treatments which will impact the epidemiological patterns of lung cancer. The clinical characteristics and the trends in incidence, mortality, and prevalence of lung cancer in Denmark from 2006 through 2015 are described and a model for predicting the future epidemiological profile of lung cancer through 2030 is introduced. METHODS: The study population comprised all cases of lung cancer, registered in the Danish Cancer Registry, who were alive on January 1, 2006 or had a first-time ever diagnosis of lung cancer during 2006 through 2015. Information on morphology, stage of the disease, comorbidity and survival was obtained from other Danish health registers. Based on NORDCAN data and estimated patient mortality rates as well as prevalence proportions for the period 2006 through 2015, future case numbers of annual incidence, deaths, and resulting prevalence were projected. RESULTS: A total of 44.291 patients were included in the study. A shift towards more patients diagnosed with lower stages and with adenocarcinoma was observed. The incidence increased and the patient mortality rate decreased significantly, with a doubling of the prevalence during the observation period. We project that the numbers of prevalent cases of lung cancer in Denmark most likely will increase from about 10,000 at the end of 2015 to about 23,000 at the end of 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support that lung cancer is being diagnosed at an earlier stage, that incidence will stop increasing, that mortality will decrease further, and that the prevalence will continue to increase substantially. Projections of cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence are important for planning health services and should be updated at regular intervals. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8414713 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-84147132021-09-09 Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 Jakobsen, Erik Olsen, Karen Ege Bliddal, Mette Hornbak, Malene Persson, Gitte F. Green, Anders BMC Cancer Research BACKGROUND: Lung cancer incidence and prevalence is increasing worldwide and there is a focus on prevention, early detection, and development of new treatments which will impact the epidemiological patterns of lung cancer. The clinical characteristics and the trends in incidence, mortality, and prevalence of lung cancer in Denmark from 2006 through 2015 are described and a model for predicting the future epidemiological profile of lung cancer through 2030 is introduced. METHODS: The study population comprised all cases of lung cancer, registered in the Danish Cancer Registry, who were alive on January 1, 2006 or had a first-time ever diagnosis of lung cancer during 2006 through 2015. Information on morphology, stage of the disease, comorbidity and survival was obtained from other Danish health registers. Based on NORDCAN data and estimated patient mortality rates as well as prevalence proportions for the period 2006 through 2015, future case numbers of annual incidence, deaths, and resulting prevalence were projected. RESULTS: A total of 44.291 patients were included in the study. A shift towards more patients diagnosed with lower stages and with adenocarcinoma was observed. The incidence increased and the patient mortality rate decreased significantly, with a doubling of the prevalence during the observation period. We project that the numbers of prevalent cases of lung cancer in Denmark most likely will increase from about 10,000 at the end of 2015 to about 23,000 at the end of 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support that lung cancer is being diagnosed at an earlier stage, that incidence will stop increasing, that mortality will decrease further, and that the prevalence will continue to increase substantially. Projections of cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence are important for planning health services and should be updated at regular intervals. BioMed Central 2021-09-03 /pmc/articles/PMC8414713/ /pubmed/34479490 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-08696-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Jakobsen, Erik Olsen, Karen Ege Bliddal, Mette Hornbak, Malene Persson, Gitte F. Green, Anders Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 |
title | Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 |
title_full | Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 |
title_fullStr | Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 |
title_short | Forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 |
title_sort | forecasting lung cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence to year 2030 |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8414713/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34479490 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-08696-6 |
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