Using Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Candidaemia in ICU Patients With New-Onset Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome

Background: Distinguishing ICU patients with candidaemia can help with the precise prescription of antifungal drugs to create personalized guidelines. Previous prediction models of candidaemia have primarily used traditional logistic models and had some limitations. In this study, we developed a machine learning algorithm trained to predict candidaemia in patients with new-onset systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Methods: This retrospective, observational study used clinical information collected between January 2013 and December 2017 from three hospitals. The ICU patient data were used to train 4 machine learning algorithms–XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), ExtraTrees (ET)–and a logistic regression (LR) model to predict patients with candidaemia. Results: Of the 8,002 cases of new-onset SIRS (in 7,932 patients) included in the analysis, 137 new-onset SIRS cases (in 137 patients) were blood culture positive for candidaemia. Risk factors, such as fungal colonization, diabetes, acute kidney injury, the total number of parenteral nutrition days and renal replacement therapy, were important predictors of candidaemia. The XGBoost machine learning model outperformed the other models in distinguishing patients with candidaemia [XGBoost vs. SVM vs. RF vs. ET vs. LR; area under the curve (AUC): 0.92 vs. 0.86 vs. 0.91 vs. 0.90 vs. 0.52, respectively]. The XGBoost model had a sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 89% and negative predictive value of 99.6% at the best cut-off value. Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms can potentially predict candidaemia in the ICU and have better efficiency than previous models. These prediction models can be used to guide antifungal treatment for ICU patients when SIRS occurs.