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Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning

BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness assessed by pulse wave velocity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. The incidence of cardiovascular events remains high in diabetics. However, a clinical prediction model for elevated arterial stiffness using machine learning to identify subjects conseq...

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Autores principales: Li, Qingqing, Xie, Wenhui, Li, Liping, Wang, Lijing, You, Qinyi, Chen, Lu, Li, Jing, Ke, Yilang, Fang, Jun, Liu, Libin, Hong, Huashan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8419456/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34497538
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2021.714195
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author Li, Qingqing
Xie, Wenhui
Li, Liping
Wang, Lijing
You, Qinyi
Chen, Lu
Li, Jing
Ke, Yilang
Fang, Jun
Liu, Libin
Hong, Huashan
author_facet Li, Qingqing
Xie, Wenhui
Li, Liping
Wang, Lijing
You, Qinyi
Chen, Lu
Li, Jing
Ke, Yilang
Fang, Jun
Liu, Libin
Hong, Huashan
author_sort Li, Qingqing
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness assessed by pulse wave velocity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. The incidence of cardiovascular events remains high in diabetics. However, a clinical prediction model for elevated arterial stiffness using machine learning to identify subjects consequently at higher risk remains to be developed. METHODS: Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and support vector machine-recursive feature elimination were used for feature selection. Four machine learning algorithms were used to construct a prediction model, and their performance was compared based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve metric in a discovery dataset (n = 760). The model with the best performance was selected and validated in an independent dataset (n = 912) from the Dryad Digital Repository (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.m484p). To apply our model to clinical practice, we built a free and user-friendly web online tool. RESULTS: The predictive model includes the predictors: age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and body mass index. In the discovery cohort, the gradient boosting-based model outperformed other methods in the elevated arterial stiffness prediction. In the validation cohort, the gradient boosting model showed a good discrimination capacity. A cutoff value of 0.46 for the elevated arterial stiffness risk score in the gradient boosting model resulted in a good specificity (0.813 in the discovery data and 0.761 in the validation data) and sensitivity (0.875 and 0.738, respectively) trade-off points. CONCLUSION: The gradient boosting-based prediction system presents a good classification in elevated arterial stiffness prediction. The web online tool makes our gradient boosting-based model easily accessible for further clinical studies and utilization.
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spelling pubmed-84194562021-09-07 Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning Li, Qingqing Xie, Wenhui Li, Liping Wang, Lijing You, Qinyi Chen, Lu Li, Jing Ke, Yilang Fang, Jun Liu, Libin Hong, Huashan Front Physiol Physiology BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness assessed by pulse wave velocity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. The incidence of cardiovascular events remains high in diabetics. However, a clinical prediction model for elevated arterial stiffness using machine learning to identify subjects consequently at higher risk remains to be developed. METHODS: Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and support vector machine-recursive feature elimination were used for feature selection. Four machine learning algorithms were used to construct a prediction model, and their performance was compared based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve metric in a discovery dataset (n = 760). The model with the best performance was selected and validated in an independent dataset (n = 912) from the Dryad Digital Repository (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.m484p). To apply our model to clinical practice, we built a free and user-friendly web online tool. RESULTS: The predictive model includes the predictors: age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and body mass index. In the discovery cohort, the gradient boosting-based model outperformed other methods in the elevated arterial stiffness prediction. In the validation cohort, the gradient boosting model showed a good discrimination capacity. A cutoff value of 0.46 for the elevated arterial stiffness risk score in the gradient boosting model resulted in a good specificity (0.813 in the discovery data and 0.761 in the validation data) and sensitivity (0.875 and 0.738, respectively) trade-off points. CONCLUSION: The gradient boosting-based prediction system presents a good classification in elevated arterial stiffness prediction. The web online tool makes our gradient boosting-based model easily accessible for further clinical studies and utilization. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-08-23 /pmc/articles/PMC8419456/ /pubmed/34497538 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2021.714195 Text en Copyright © 2021 Li, Xie, Li, Wang, You, Chen, Li, Ke, Fang, Liu and Hong. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Physiology
Li, Qingqing
Xie, Wenhui
Li, Liping
Wang, Lijing
You, Qinyi
Chen, Lu
Li, Jing
Ke, Yilang
Fang, Jun
Liu, Libin
Hong, Huashan
Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning
title Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning
title_full Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning
title_fullStr Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning
title_full_unstemmed Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning
title_short Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning
title_sort development and validation of a prediction model for elevated arterial stiffness in chinese patients with diabetes using machine learning
topic Physiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8419456/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34497538
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2021.714195
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