Triglyceride glucose-body mass index and the risk of diabetes: a general population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) has been proven to be a reliable substitute for insulin resistance. However, whether a causal association exists between TyG-BMI and new-onset diabetes remains uncertain. The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal association and predictive performance between TyG-BMI and diabetes. METHODS: A total of 116,661 subjects who underwent a physical examination were included in this study. The subjects were divided into five equal points according to the quintile of TyG-BMI, and the outcome of interest was the occurrence of diabetic events. TyG-BMI = ln [fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL) × fasting triglycerides (mg/dL)/2] × BMI. RESULTS: During the average follow-up period of 3.1 (0.95) years, 1888 men (1.61 %) and 793 women (0.68 %) were newly diagnosed with diabetes. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that TyG-BMI was an independent predictor of new-onset diabetes (HR 1.50 per SD increase, 95 %CI: 1.40 to 1.60, P-trend < 0.00001), and the best TyG-BMI cutoff value for predicting new-onset diabetes was 213.2966 (area under the curve 0.7741, sensitivity 72.51 %, specificity 69.54 %). Additionally, the results of subgroup analysis suggested that the risk of TyG-BMI-related diabetes in young and middle-aged people was significantly higher than that in middle-aged and elderly people, and the risk of TyG-BMI-related diabetes in non-obese people was significantly higher than that in overweight and obese people (P for interaction < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This cohort study of the Chinese population shows that after excluding other confounding factors, there is a causal association of TyG-BMI with diabetes, and this independent association is more obvious in young, middle-aged and non-obese people. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12944-021-01532-7.