Functional 4-D clustering for characterizing intratumor heterogeneity in dynamic imaging: evaluation in FDG PET as a prognostic biomarker for breast cancer

PURPOSE: Probe-based dynamic (4-D) imaging modalities capture breast intratumor heterogeneity both spatially and kinetically. Characterizing heterogeneity through tumor sub-populations with distinct functional behavior may elucidate tumor biology to improve targeted therapy specificity and enable precision clinical decision making. METHODS: We propose an unsupervised clustering algorithm for 4-D imaging that integrates Markov-Random Field (MRF) image segmentation with time-series analysis to characterize kinetic intratumor heterogeneity. We applied this to dynamic FDG PET scans by identifying distinct time-activity curve (TAC) profiles with spatial proximity constraints. We first evaluated algorithm performance using simulated dynamic data. We then applied our algorithm to a dataset of 50 women with locally advanced breast cancer imaged by dynamic FDG PET prior to treatment and followed to monitor for disease recurrence. A functional tumor heterogeneity (FTH) signature was then extracted from functionally distinct sub-regions within each tumor. Cross-validated time-to-event analysis was performed to assess the prognostic value of FTH signatures compared to established histopathological and kinetic prognostic markers. RESULTS: Adding FTH signatures to a baseline model of known predictors of disease recurrence and established FDG PET uptake and kinetic markers improved the concordance statistic (C-statistic) from 0.59 to 0.74 (p = 0.005). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of the FTH signatures identified two significant (p < 0.001) phenotypes of tumor heterogeneity corresponding to high and low FTH. Distributions of FDG flux, or Ki, were significantly different (p = 0.04) across the two phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that imaging markers of FTH add independent value beyond standard PET imaging metrics in predicting recurrence-free survival in breast cancer and thus merit further study. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-021-05265-8.