Prognostic factors of total hip replacement during a 2-year period in participants enrolled in supervised education and exercise therapy: a prognostic study of 3657 participants with hip osteoarthritis

BACKGROUND: Evidence on prognostic factors associated with progression to total hip replacement (THR) in hip osteoarthritis (OA) is for the most patient- and disease-specific characteristics either conflicting or inconclusive. Therefore, the objectives of this study of participants with hip OA enrolled in a structured program of supervised education and exercise therapy were to describe the rate of THR and to identify prognostic factors for receiving THR within the following 2 years. METHODS: Participants aged ≥ 45 years with hip OA enrolled in Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D®) from July 2014 to March 2017 were included. Potential prognostic factors included demographic and disease-specific baseline characteristics and measures of physical activity and quality of life (QoL). Information on THR was retrieved from The Danish National Patient Registry. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was developed. RESULTS: Of 3657 included participants, 30% received a THR within 2 years. Of the 100 participants already wait-listed for THR, 60% had the procedure. Of 22 candidate prognostic factors, 14 were statistically significant for receiving THR. Factors associated with a faster rate of THR included being “male” (HR 1.43), having “self-reported radiographic hip OA” (HR 2.32), being “wait-listed for THR” (HR 2.17), and having a higher “pain intensity” (HR 1.01). In contrast, faster “walking speed” (HR 0.64), better “hip-related QoL” (HR 0.98), and having “three or more comorbidities” (HR 0.62) were predictive of a slower rate of THR. CONCLUSION: During the 2-year follow-up period, 30% of the cohort received a THR. Notably, 40% of those wait-listed for THR when entering the program did not receive THR within 2 years. A number of baseline prognostic factors for receiving THR were identified. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-021-02608-6.