Novel Predictor for New-Onset Atrial High-Rate Episode in Patients With a Dual-Chamber Pacemaker

Background: The incidence of new-onset atrial high-rate episode (AHRE) is higher among patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) than in the general population. We sought to elucidate the clinical factors associated with AHRE in CIED patients, including P-wave dispersion (PWD) in sinus rhythm. Methods and Results: In all, 101 patients with CIEDs newly implanted between 2010 and 2014 were included in the study. PWD was measured at the time of device implantation via a body-surface electrocardiogram. AHRE was defined as any episode of sustained atrial tachyarrhythmia (>170 beats/min) recorded in the device’s memory. Patients were divided into an AHRE (n=34) and non-AHRE (n=67) group based on the presence or absence of AHRE within 1 year of device implantation and compared. Mean (±SD) patient age was 75±11 years. A greater incidence of sick sinus syndrome (P=0.05) and longer PWD (62.6±13.1 vs. 38.2±13.9 ms; P<0.0001) were apparent in the AHRE than non-AHRE group. Multivariate analysis revealed that PWD was an independent predictor of new-onset AHRE (odds ratio 1.11; 95% confidence interval 1.06–1.17; P<0.0001). In logistic regression analysis, receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve 0.90; P<0.001) suggested the best cut-off value for PWD was 48 mm (sensitivity 73.8%, specificity 77.9%). Conclusions: PWD is a simple but feasible predictor of new-onset AHRE in patients with CIEDs.