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Serial Interval and Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Among 116 Infector-infectee Pairs — Jingzhou City, Hubei Province, China, 2020
WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC? The key epidemiological parameters including serial interval, basic reproductive number (R(0)), and effective reproductive number (R(t)) are crucial for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control and prevention. Previous studies provided different estimations...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8428449/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34594686 http://dx.doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2020.118 |
Sumario: | WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC? The key epidemiological parameters including serial interval, basic reproductive number (R(0)), and effective reproductive number (R(t)) are crucial for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control and prevention. Previous studies provided different estimations but were often flawed by some limitations such as insufficient sample size and selection bias. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT? In this study, a total of 116 infector-infectee pairs meeting strict inclusion criteria were selected for analysis. The mean serial interval of COVID-19 was 5.81 days (standard deviation: 3.24). The estimated mean with 95% confidence interval of R(0) was 3.39 (3.07–3.75) and 2.98 (2.62–3.38) using exponential growth (EG) and maximum likelihood (ML) methods, respectively. The R(t) in the early phase of the epidemic was above 1 with the peak of 4.43 occurring on January 8, and then showing subsequent declines and approaching 1 on January 24. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICES? This study supports previous findings that COVID-19 has high transmissibility and that implementing comprehensive measures is effective in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. |
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