COVID-19 Deaths in the United States: Shifts in Hot Spots over the Three Phases of the Pandemic and the Spatiotemporally Varying Impact of Pandemic Vulnerability

The geographic areas most impacted by COVID-19 may not remain static because public health measures/behaviors change dynamically, and the impacts of pandemic vulnerability also may vary geographically and temporally. The nature of the pandemic makes spatiotemporal methods essential to understanding the distribution of COVID-19 deaths and developing interventions. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends in COVID-19 death rates in the United States from March 2020 to May 2021 by performing an emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA). It then investigates the effects of the COVID-19 time-dependent and basic social vulnerability factors on COVID-19 death rates using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). The EHSA results demonstrate that over the three phases of the pandemic (first wave, second wave, and post-vaccine deployment), hot spots have shifted from densely populated cities and the states with a high percentage of socially vulnerable individuals to the states with relatively relaxed social distancing requirements, and then to the states with low vaccination rates. The GTWR results suggest that local infection and testing rates, social distancing interventions, and other social, environmental, and health risk factors show significant associations with COVID-19 death rates, but these associations vary over time and space. These findings can inform public health planning.