Regional Effects of Perceived Risks of Harm on Cigarette Smoking among U.S. High School Seniors: Evidence from Monitoring the Future

Overall, there has been an increasing trend in the perceived risk of harm from smoking among U.S. high school seniors. However, these perceptions of risk have been falling in recent years. This study uses regional-level panel data from the Monitoring the Future survey and a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of perceived risk on three regional measurements of smoking behavior: consumption, lifetime prevalence, and daily smoking prevalence. Elasticity measurements at regional levels show that an increase in perceived risk decreases these regional measurements of smoking behavior. Moreover, the results show that, at regional levels, these measurements of smoking behavior are more responsive to changes in the perceived risk associated with smoking than to changes in the price of cigarettes.