Predicting Kidney Graft Survival Using Machine Learning Methods: Prediction Model Development and Feature Significance Analysis Study

BACKGROUND: Kidney transplantation is the optimal treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease. Short- and long-term kidney graft survival is influenced by a number of donor and recipient factors. Predicting the success of kidney transplantation is important for optimizing kidney allocation. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to predict the risk of kidney graft failure across three temporal cohorts (within 1 year, within 5 years, and after 5 years following a transplant) based on donor and recipient characteristics. We analyzed a large data set comprising over 50,000 kidney transplants covering an approximate 20-year period. METHODS: We applied machine learning–based classification algorithms to develop prediction models for the risk of graft failure for three different temporal cohorts. Deep learning–based autoencoders were applied for data dimensionality reduction, which improved the prediction performance. The influence of features on graft survival for each cohort was studied by investigating a new nonoverlapping patient stratification approach. RESULTS: Our models predicted graft survival with area under the curve scores of 82% within 1 year, 69% within 5 years, and 81% within 17 years. The feature importance analysis elucidated the varying influence of clinical features on graft survival across the three different temporal cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we applied machine learning to develop risk prediction models for graft failure that demonstrated a high level of prediction performance. Acknowledging that these models performed better than those reported in the literature for existing risk prediction tools, future studies will focus on how best to incorporate these prediction models into clinical care algorithms to optimize the long-term health of kidney recipients.