A radiomics-based nomogram for preoperative T staging prediction of rectal cancer

PURPOSE: To investigate the value of a radiomics-based nomogram in predicting preoperative T staging of rectal cancer. METHODS: A total of 268 eligible rectal cancer patients from August 2012 to December 2018 were enrolled and allocated into two datasets: training (n = 188) and validation datasets (n = 80). Another set of 32 patients from January 2019 to July 2019 was included in a prospective analysis. Pretreatment T2-weighted images were used to radiomics features extraction. Feature selection and radiomics score (Rad-score) construction were performed through a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. The nomogram, which included Rad-scores and clinical factors, was built using multivariate logistic regression. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: The Rad-score containing nine selected features was significantly related to T staging. Patients who had locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) generally had higher Rad-scores than patients with early-stage rectal cancer. The nomogram incorporated Rad-scores and carcinoembryonic antigen levels and showed good discrimination, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.882 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.835–0.930) in the training dataset and 0.846 (95% CI 0.757–0.936) in the validation dataset. The calibration curves confirmed high goodness of fit, and the decision curve analysis revealed the clinical value. A prospective analysis demonstrated that the AUC of the nomogram to predict LARC was 0.859 (95% CI 0.730–0.987). CONCLUSION: A radiomics-based nomogram is a novel method for predicting LARC and can provide support in clinical decision making. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00261-021-03137-1.