North African dust intrusions and increased risk of respiratory diseases in Southern Portugal

The study of dust intrusions in Portugal is still a subject on which little investigation has been made, especially in terms of their effects. Thus, this work aims to achieve two goals: firstly, to characterize the dust intrusions in the study area; and secondly, to evaluate the possible statistical association between the dust intrusion days and hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. Dust intrusions in Portugal are prevalent during the summer season. During this season, the dust plumes tend to cover broader areas than in the other seasons and they have origin in the North African countries. In the study area for the period between 2005 and 2015, the relative risk of urgent hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases was 12.6% higher during dust intrusion days. In order to obtain this statistical association, a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model was developed. With this work, we expect to help the development of further studies regarding North African dust intrusions in Portugal, more precisely their effects on human health. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00484-021-02132-x.