Virtual randomized study comparing lobectomy and particle beam therapy for clinical stage IA non-small cell lung cancer in operable patients

To the best of our knowledge there have been no randomized controlled trials comparing lobectomy—a standard treatment for patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)—and particle beam therapy (PBT), the best performing existing radiotherapy. We conducted a virtual randomized trial in medically operable patients with stage IA NSCLC to compare lobectomy and PBT effectiveness. A Markov model was developed to predict life expectancy after lobectomy and PBT in a cohort of patients with stage IA NSCLC. Ten thousand virtual patients were randomly assigned to each group. Sensitivity analyses were performed as model variables and scenarios changed to determine which treatment strategy was best for improving life expectancy. All estimated model parameters were determined using variables extracted from a systematic literature review of previously published articles. The preferred strategy differed depending on patient age. In young patients, lobectomy showed better life expectancy than that of PBT. The difference in life expectancy between lobectomy and PBT was statistically insignificant in older patients. Our model predicted lobectomy as the preferred strategy when operative mortality was under 5%. However, the preferred strategy changed to PBT if operative mortality post lobectomy was over 5%. For medically operable patients with stage IA NSCLC, our Markov model revealed the preferred strategy of lobectomy or PBT regarding operative mortality changed with varying age and comorbidity. Until randomized controlled trial results become available, we hope the current results will provide a rationale background for clinicians to decide treatment modalities for patients with stage IA NSCLC.