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Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year
The occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was followed by a small burst of cases around the world; afterward, due to a series of emergency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the increasing number of confirmed cases slowed down in many countries. However, the lifting of control meas...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8438800/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34540319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.07.015 |
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author | Wei, Yongyue Guan, Jinxing Ning, Xiao Li, Yuelin Wei, Liangmin Shen, Sipeng Zhang, Ruyang Zhao, Yang Shen, Hongbing Chen, Feng |
author_facet | Wei, Yongyue Guan, Jinxing Ning, Xiao Li, Yuelin Wei, Liangmin Shen, Sipeng Zhang, Ruyang Zhao, Yang Shen, Hongbing Chen, Feng |
author_sort | Wei, Yongyue |
collection | PubMed |
description | The occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was followed by a small burst of cases around the world; afterward, due to a series of emergency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the increasing number of confirmed cases slowed down in many countries. However, the lifting of control measures by the government and the public’s loosening of precautionary behaviors led to a sudden increase in cases, arousing deep concern across the globe. arousing deep concern across the globe. This study evaluates the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in countries and territories worldwide from January 2020 to February 2021. According to the time-varying reproduction number (R(t)) of each country or territory, the results show that almost half of the countries and territories in the world have never controlled the epidemic. Among the countries and territories that had once contained the occurrence, nearly half failed to maintain their prevention and control, causing the COVID-19 pandemic to rebound across the world—resulting in even higher waves in half of the rebounding countries or territories. This work also proposes and uses a time-varying country-level transmission risk score (CTRS), which takes into account both R(t) and daily new cases, to demonstrate country-level or territory-level transmission potential and trends. Time-varying hierarchical clustering of time-varying CTRS values was used to successfully reveal the countries and territories that contributed to the recent aggravation of the global pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, and to identify countries and territories with an increasing risk of COVID-19 transmission in the near future. Furthermore, a regression analysis indicated that the introduction and relaxation of NPIs, including workplace closure policies and stay-at-home requirements, appear to be associated with recent global transmission changes. In conclusion, a systematic evaluation of the global COVID-19 pandemic over the past year indicates that the world is now in an unexpected situation, with limited lessons learned. Summarizing the lessons learned could help in designing effective public responses for constraining future waves of COVID-19 worldwide. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8438800 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-84388002021-09-14 Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year Wei, Yongyue Guan, Jinxing Ning, Xiao Li, Yuelin Wei, Liangmin Shen, Sipeng Zhang, Ruyang Zhao, Yang Shen, Hongbing Chen, Feng Engineering (Beijing) Research Public Health—Article The occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was followed by a small burst of cases around the world; afterward, due to a series of emergency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the increasing number of confirmed cases slowed down in many countries. However, the lifting of control measures by the government and the public’s loosening of precautionary behaviors led to a sudden increase in cases, arousing deep concern across the globe. arousing deep concern across the globe. This study evaluates the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in countries and territories worldwide from January 2020 to February 2021. According to the time-varying reproduction number (R(t)) of each country or territory, the results show that almost half of the countries and territories in the world have never controlled the epidemic. Among the countries and territories that had once contained the occurrence, nearly half failed to maintain their prevention and control, causing the COVID-19 pandemic to rebound across the world—resulting in even higher waves in half of the rebounding countries or territories. This work also proposes and uses a time-varying country-level transmission risk score (CTRS), which takes into account both R(t) and daily new cases, to demonstrate country-level or territory-level transmission potential and trends. Time-varying hierarchical clustering of time-varying CTRS values was used to successfully reveal the countries and territories that contributed to the recent aggravation of the global pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, and to identify countries and territories with an increasing risk of COVID-19 transmission in the near future. Furthermore, a regression analysis indicated that the introduction and relaxation of NPIs, including workplace closure policies and stay-at-home requirements, appear to be associated with recent global transmission changes. In conclusion, a systematic evaluation of the global COVID-19 pandemic over the past year indicates that the world is now in an unexpected situation, with limited lessons learned. Summarizing the lessons learned could help in designing effective public responses for constraining future waves of COVID-19 worldwide. THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. 2022-06 2021-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC8438800/ /pubmed/34540319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.07.015 Text en © 2022 Chinese Academy of Engineering Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Research Public Health—Article Wei, Yongyue Guan, Jinxing Ning, Xiao Li, Yuelin Wei, Liangmin Shen, Sipeng Zhang, Ruyang Zhao, Yang Shen, Hongbing Chen, Feng Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year |
title | Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year |
title_full | Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year |
title_fullStr | Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year |
title_full_unstemmed | Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year |
title_short | Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year |
title_sort | global covid-19 pandemic waves: limited lessons learned worldwide over the past year |
topic | Research Public Health—Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8438800/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34540319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.07.015 |
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