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Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005)

In order to correctly detect climate signals and discard possible instrumentation errors, establishing coherent data records has become increasingly relevant. However, since real measurements can be inhomogeneous, their use for assessing homogenization techniques is not directly possible, and the st...

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Autores principales: Coscarelli, Roberto, Caroletti, Giulio Nils, Joelsson, Magnus, Engström, Erik, Caloiero, Tommaso
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8440641/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34521908
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97685-7
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author Coscarelli, Roberto
Caroletti, Giulio Nils
Joelsson, Magnus
Engström, Erik
Caloiero, Tommaso
author_facet Coscarelli, Roberto
Caroletti, Giulio Nils
Joelsson, Magnus
Engström, Erik
Caloiero, Tommaso
author_sort Coscarelli, Roberto
collection PubMed
description In order to correctly detect climate signals and discard possible instrumentation errors, establishing coherent data records has become increasingly relevant. However, since real measurements can be inhomogeneous, their use for assessing homogenization techniques is not directly possible, and the study of their performance must be done on homogeneous datasets subjected to controlled, artificial inhomogeneities. In this paper, considering two European temperature networks over the 1950–2005 period, up to 7 artificial breaks and an average of 107 missing data per station were introduced, in order to determine that mean square error, absolute bias and factor of exceedance can be meaningfully used to validate the best-performing homogenization technique. Three techniques were used, ACMANT and two versions of HOMER: the standard, automated setup mode and a manual setup. Results showed that the HOMER techniques performed better regarding the factor of exceedance, while ACMANT was best with regard to absolute error and root mean square error. Regardless of the technique used, it was also established that homogenization quality anti-correlated meaningfully to the number of breaks. On the other hand, as missing data are almost always replaced in the two HOMER techniques, only ACMANT performance is significantly, negatively affected by the amount of missing data.
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spelling pubmed-84406412021-09-20 Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005) Coscarelli, Roberto Caroletti, Giulio Nils Joelsson, Magnus Engström, Erik Caloiero, Tommaso Sci Rep Article In order to correctly detect climate signals and discard possible instrumentation errors, establishing coherent data records has become increasingly relevant. However, since real measurements can be inhomogeneous, their use for assessing homogenization techniques is not directly possible, and the study of their performance must be done on homogeneous datasets subjected to controlled, artificial inhomogeneities. In this paper, considering two European temperature networks over the 1950–2005 period, up to 7 artificial breaks and an average of 107 missing data per station were introduced, in order to determine that mean square error, absolute bias and factor of exceedance can be meaningfully used to validate the best-performing homogenization technique. Three techniques were used, ACMANT and two versions of HOMER: the standard, automated setup mode and a manual setup. Results showed that the HOMER techniques performed better regarding the factor of exceedance, while ACMANT was best with regard to absolute error and root mean square error. Regardless of the technique used, it was also established that homogenization quality anti-correlated meaningfully to the number of breaks. On the other hand, as missing data are almost always replaced in the two HOMER techniques, only ACMANT performance is significantly, negatively affected by the amount of missing data. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC8440641/ /pubmed/34521908 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97685-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Coscarelli, Roberto
Caroletti, Giulio Nils
Joelsson, Magnus
Engström, Erik
Caloiero, Tommaso
Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005)
title Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005)
title_full Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005)
title_fullStr Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005)
title_full_unstemmed Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005)
title_short Validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in Sweden and Slovenia (1950–2005)
title_sort validation metrics of homogenization techniques on artificially inhomogenized monthly temperature networks in sweden and slovenia (1950–2005)
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8440641/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34521908
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97685-7
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